661
FXUS63 KDLH 171826 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
- EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING AS WELL AS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
OR UNDER AN INCH AND A HALF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS HAVE WARMED THIS MORNING. WHILE A
FEW SITES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA REPORTED WIND CHILLS COLDER
THAN -30 F AT 11 AM, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE ALLOWED
THIS ROUND OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES TO EXPIRE. NO CHANGES TO
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE BOTTOM OF
CLIMATOLOGY THIS MORNING, WITH NAEFS PERCENTILES SHOWING 850MB TEMPS
AROUND THE 1ST PERCENTILE TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW ZERO WITH WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE TEENS AND
NEGATIVE 20S WITH EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH. SKIES WILL LARGELY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AS CLOUD COVER AROUND THE IRON RANGE UP TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS 925MB
FGEN WEAKENS. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA WAS EXPANDED INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES
THIS MORNING DUE TO TEMPERATURES TRENDING COLDER.
IN NORTHWEST WI, AREAS OF LOW CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OBSERVED VIA
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY FROM GOES-EAST ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES "WARMER" IN COMPARISON TO THE MN SIDE OF THE CWA. SINCE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER IN NORTHWEST WI, THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -20S TO LOW -30S.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE, WEAK WINDS
ARE STILL VERY LIKELY (70% CHANCE) TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF -40 OR
COLDER FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. SINCE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, THE EXTREME COLD WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE COLD IS THE MAIN STORY, FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO FLURRIES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
PERSIST AND LARGE DELTA-TS BETWEEN THE LAKE SFC AND 850MB IN EXCESS
OF 20 DEGC CONTINUE. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT AROUND 1.5" OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO TAKE A BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO THE
SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING A PATTERN CHANGE TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE BUILDS. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR MAX TEMPS GREATER THAN 32 DEGREES ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 70-80% FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.
WHILE THINGS CAN AND ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL CHANGE, NBM PROBABILITIES
AND ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGEST A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THIN STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CIG AND VSBY AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.
OPTED FOR PROB30S FOR THE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE HIT OR MISS AND MAY NOT AFFECT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. BRD
HAS THE SMALLEST CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS. ANTHROPOGENIC CLOUDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST NEAR HIB TODAY AND MAY REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT. IFR CIG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT HIB.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY, CAUSING WAVES TO CONTINUE
TO BUILD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY, DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY EASE. BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT IN THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS, MAINLY AROUND AND
NORTHEAST OF OUTER ISLAND. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
TUESDAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ143>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ150.
UPDATE...HUYCK
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...UNRUH
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