373
FXUS63 KDLH 172336
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
536 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR SOME LOCATIONS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT WILL BRING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS OUTBREAK. HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY STAYED BELOW ZERO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT. IF WIND SPEEDS STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT, LOWS WON'T BE AS COLD AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO THE MATTER OF LINGERING ARCTIC
STRATOCUMULUS WHICH PERCOLATED OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE CLOUDS DON'T DISSIPATE AS EXPECTED, THE THIN
LAYER OF INSULATION MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER, I EXPECT TO SEE A REPEAT OF LAST
NIGHT WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 10 AM ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. LIGHT
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ANYWHERE THE CLOUDS
LOITER. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING UP TO AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WEAKENS AND PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
ON TUESDAY, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD, BUT NOT AS COLD,
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A
RETROGRADE LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
ONTARIO. CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN FROM EAST TO WEST, STARTING IN
THE ARROWHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE'S ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE DCVA. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF US-2 IN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER,
ALTHOUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR SOME LOCATIONS AND
MAY EVEN REACH 40 DEGREES. QUITE A TURN AROUND!
ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL COME A FEW MORE CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY SILENCE THE WINDS THIS EVENING WITH
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS
A 20% CHANCE THAT AN MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. ANTHROPOGENIC
SNOW MAY ALSO IMPACT HIB TOMORROW AS WELL.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
FROM SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHILE
WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ELSEWHERE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT.
WINDS WEAKEN FOR A TIME TUESDAY BEFORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ143>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...HUYCK
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