808
FXUS63 KDLH 191721
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1121 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 AM.
- LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES WILL BE FOUND IN THE ARROWHEAD AND SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BELTS, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
- SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS VERY
LIKELY (80+% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTING OVER THE CWA FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AS A 500MB TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK, BRINGING A RIDGE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST CLOSER TO THE CWA BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE WARMER TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON, THE NEAR TERM IS
STILL VERY COLD WITH LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
UNTIL 9 AM DUE TO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -25 TO -40 DEGREES.
IN ADDITION TO COLD TEMPERATURES, THIS MORNING HAS ALSO SEEN LIGHT
SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AS A 500MB VORTICITY MAX RETROGRADES
INTO THE CWA FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS VORT MAX WILL MERGE WITH A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY,
MOVING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW, CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ARROWHEAD, TO
THE SOUTH. CAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SATURATION THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL PRIMARILY BE OCCURRING IN TEMPS BELOW
THE DGZ. THIS WIL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGH SLR IN THE 17-20:1 RANGE, WITH
TODAY'S SNOW LIKELY BEING FLUFFY WITH A FINE CRYSTAL SIZE. ON THE
SOUTH SHORE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS 850MB
TO LAKE SFC DELTA-TS REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGC.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA, AT 2 INCHES OR LESS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 1" OF SNOW FROM THE HREF IS NEAR 0% FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH A FEW BULLSEYES OF 80+% CHANCES IN NORTHERN
LAKE, COOK, BAYFIELD, AND IRON COUNTIES. IN THE HURLEY AREA AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE TIP OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA, THERE IS A
30% CHANCE THAT SNOW AMOUNTS COULD GET UP TO 3". EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TAKING AN UPWARD TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE VERY LIKELY TO PROPAGATE THROUGH ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MOST IMPACTFUL OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS
LIKELY TO BE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW CHANCES ARRIVE. SINCE THERE IS A 80-95% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY PER NBM PROBS, PRECIPITATION TYPE
ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY'S LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE MESSY. WHILE
IT'S TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC IMPACTS, CURRENT INDICATIONS SHOW
THAT THE LARGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT IS POSSIBLE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS SNOW AMOUNTS CURRENTLY APPEAR LIKELY (70%
CHANCE) TO BE LIGHT AT 2 INCHES OR LESS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TODAY, WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND A MILE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD. TOWARDS THIS EVENING DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
CAUSING SNOW TO END AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE, BUT CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN NEAR MVFR LEVELS AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FT AGL THROUGH THE
EVENING. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, BUT
DLH AND HYR MAY HAVE SOME MVFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AT THOSE SITES BY LATE MORNING. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ON THURSDAY SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING
MID TO LATE THIS MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE UNTIL 10 AM TODAY. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK TO BE WEAKER
IN GENERAL AS SHALLOWER MIXING IS EXPECTED.
A CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD CREATE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALLER CRAFT STARTING
FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL 30% CHANCE OF A FEW GALES ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...JJM
MARINE...UNRUH
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