465
FXUS63 KDLH 191941
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
141 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS NORTH.
- WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 40
DEGREES.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LATE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A 30-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A REPRIEVE FROM THE INTENSE ARCTIC COLD OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS AS A
WARMER AIRMASS BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE COMING DAYS. A PARADE OF CLIPPERS WILL RESULT IN A FEW PERIODS
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT BEYOND TODAY'S
SNOWFALL THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MAY RESULT IN
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY OTHER NIGHTS.
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE ONGOING LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, WITH THE NORTH WINDS CAUSING LAKE-
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE INTO
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
AN INCH, EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE THE USUAL LAKE-
ENHANCEMENT SPOTS (BAYFIELD PENINSULA, HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES) CAN EXPECT A TOTAL FOR 1-3 INCHES. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH LOOKS
TO BE THE ONLY SUNNY DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BROAD WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE GREAT
PLAINS ON THURSDAY, BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN A MORE MILD AIRMASS, WITH
THE SUBSEQUENT WEST WINDS IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS WITH 850MB TEMPS
NEAR 0C TO EVEN ABOVE ZERO, WHICH IS WITHIN THE WARMEST 90TH
PERCENTILE RANK FOR THE INL SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE 100-125 KNOT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVING ACROSS THE FAST FLOW.
PREDICTABILITY FOR THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION OF EACH CLIPPER
IS BELOW NORMAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CLIPPERS WILL
HAVE LIMITED IMPACTS WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY WITH
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES CAUSING SOME PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN. AT THIS POINT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL COULD FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD, FALLING AS MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
THE IRON RANGE TO TWIN PORTS AND PARTS SOUTH.
A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S, THEN A BIT OF THAW FOR THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 30S ON
SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. DIVING INTO THE DATA SHOWS THAT OUR
FORECAST IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED BY BIAS CORRECTION
EFFECTS (BIAS CORRECTING HIGH TEMPS WARMER THAN THE RAW MODELS BASED
ON RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE), AND JUST BASED ON EXPERIENCE, REACHING
TEMPS HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S WITH SUCH A DEEP SNOW PACK AND WITH
MODEL COLUMNS APPEARING FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE LOW LEVELS SEEMS
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE - LONG-TERM CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE DLH AIRPORT LOCATION AVERAGES ABOUT 4 DAYS IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY WHERE HIGH TEMPS ARE 35 OR GREATER - SO STICKING WITH A
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND WITH THE FORECAST. AT LEAST SOME FOG SEEMS
UNAVOIDABLE WITH THESE CONDITIONS - SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE LEAST BUT
POSSIBLY EACH NIGHT LINGERING TOWARDS MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TODAY, WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND A MILE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD. TOWARDS THIS EVENING DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
CAUSING SNOW TO END AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE, BUT CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN NEAR MVFR LEVELS AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FT AGL THROUGH THE
EVENING. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, BUT
DLH AND HYR MAY HAVE SOME MVFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AT THOSE SITES BY LATE MORNING. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ON THURSDAY SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
STEADY NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WEAK WINDS INTO THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND A CLIPPER
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
BUILDING WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG PARTS OF THE NORTH SHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ON PARTS OF THE NORTH
SHORE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
GRAND MARAIS, BUT GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY. THESE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN THE ICE THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM
THE TWIN PORTS TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS BREAKING UP AS TEMPERATURES
ALSO WARM UP.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
MARINE...JJM
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