752
FXUS63 KDLH 201736
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDS, FLURRIES, SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY WITH HIGHS TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES TODAY AND LOWER
TWENTIES FOR MOST FRIDAY.
- WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
THIRTIES SUNDAY AND SOME LOWER FORTIES POSSIBLE MONDAY.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH A 30-60 PERCENT PROBABILITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A BIT HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. AN OBSERVER EARLIER REPORTED LARGER FLAKES COMPARED TO
THE SMALLER ONES OBSERVED WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DEEPER
DGZ WITH THE LAKE EFFECT AND WE INCREASED SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS
THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING OF 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM BIRCH HILL EAST INTO THE SNOW BELT OF NORTHERN IRON COUNTY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE DAY SHUTTING DOWN THE LAKE
EFFECT AND CAUSING CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL
WILL RISE INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THOUGH
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO AROUND 25 MPH.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE KEPT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
DRY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY SPREADING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER, THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO
LOWER THIRTIES.
A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(30-60%) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SUNDAY'S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE THIRTIES WITH LOWER THIRTIES TO AROUND FORTY
MONDAY. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WE COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM WITH
HIGHS IF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND FOG IS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN
FORECAST NOW. THE CHANCE FOR HIGHS REACHING FORTY DEGREES IS
20-60% ON MONDAY, HIGHEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MOST BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. WE HAVE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GOING NOW BUT THERE IS ALSO A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. IT'S TOO EARLY TO GET
MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT AT TIME TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING SKIES AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TURNING TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
LLWS, HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME SPEEDS ARE JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLDS
THAT WOULD WARRANT PUTTING THEM IN THE TAF. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50% CHANCE OF SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVER HYR TOMORROW
MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT OR LESS THAN 15
KNOTS FOR MOST.
THE WIND WILL BACK TONIGHT AND BE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
REMAINING WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A 25 TO 40% CHANCE FOR
GALES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AND THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IS
A NEAR CERTAINTY.
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY LEAD TO CHANGING ICE CONDITIONS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...MELDE
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