066
FXUS63 KDLH 202019
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
219 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- MELTING SNOWPACK COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO
FOGGY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH A 30-60 PERCENT PROBABILITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE FREEZER AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. OUR 850 TEMPS ARE NO LONGER 20C BELOW AND ARE NOW AROUND
10C BELOW. IN COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES, HIGHER SUN ANGLE, AND
THE PINE TREE EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION. OUR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S WITH SOME MID 20S IN NW WI.
TOMORROW:
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
TO MO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY
WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH THE DAY COULD SPAWN SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN MN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK:
A COUPLE OF INTERESTING ITEMS TO MONITOR FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FIRST AND FOREMOST IS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10
TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WARM FLOW WILL LEAD TO SUBLIMATION OF
OUR SNOW AT THE SURFACE. WITH A STOUT WARM NOSE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS THIS WATER VAPOR WILL BE TRAPPED AND MAY LEAD TO THE
NORTHLAND BEING SOCKED IN WITH SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG. THIS
DOES THROW A BIT OF WRENCH INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL HEATING. REGARDLESS,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN SUNDAY. A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL JET DIVES SE WITH IT'S LEFT EXIT REGION OVER THE NORTHLAND.
THE SYSTEM ISN'T TAPPING INTO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BUT THE BOOST IN
DIVERGENCE HAS A 30-60% CHANCE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLAY, MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A
CHALLENGE. THIS LOOKS TO PRIMARILY RESULT IN A RAIN SNOW MIX. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE EURO SHOW SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION INTO NW WI.
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW CLIPPER
SYSTEMS REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS REMAINS LARGE.
FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY A 20-30% CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING SKIES AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TURNING TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
LLWS, HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME SPEEDS ARE JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLDS
THAT WOULD WARRANT PUTTING THEM IN THE TAF. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50% CHANCE OF SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVER HYR TOMORROW
MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
A SHIFT IN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH INCREASING GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KNOTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 25 TO 40% CHANCE OF GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS TOMORROW NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO 8 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL VERY LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY LEAD TO CHANGING ICE CONDITIONS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...IGS/PA
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