600
FXUS63 KDLH 211141
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
541 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SAT-WED
HIGHS 5-15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS MON-TUE
WILL BE 20-30F ABOVE NORMAL.
- MELTING SNOWPACK COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO FOGGY
CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH A 30-60 PERCENT PROBABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
A RELATIVELY QUITE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AND AID IN PRODUCING HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TWENTIES. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE
DELTA-T VALUES FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
MORE SHORE PARALLEL SO THE FLURRIES MAY REMAIN JUST OFF SHORE.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE FROM THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID- THIRTIES.
A BETTER CHANCE (30-60%) FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE THIRTIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT BOTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WELL AS MANY OF THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST LITTLE OR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING. THE ECMWF PRECIP TYPE FAVORS RAIN OR SNOW BUT
DOES HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN. WE HAVE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, LESS THAN AN INCH AND ANY ICING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE MID-
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. THERE IS A CONCERN WE COULD BE TOO
WARM WITH HIGHS MONDAY AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF SNOWMELT. THERE
COULD BE STRATUS/FOG THAT DEVELOPS WHICH WOULD LIMIT HEATING AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WOULD
LIMIT MIXING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE ISN'T
HANDLING THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WELL WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES. WE HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-40%) FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND SOME
SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS IN SPOTS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW
LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WERE CLOSE FOR POSSIBLY
INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO AROUND 30
KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WAVES WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY PEAKING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AROUND 8 FEET FROM
GRAND PORTAGE TO TACONITE HARBOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SOME FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE HIGHER WAVES. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEST
OR SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY LEAD TO CHANGING ICE CONDITIONS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ140>146-148-150.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
MARINE...MELDE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page