433
FXUS63 KDLH 211720
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SAT-WED
HIGHS 5-15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS MON-TUE
WILL BE 20-30F ABOVE NORMAL.
- MELTING SNOWPACK COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO FOGGY
CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH A 30-60 PERCENT PROBABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
A RELATIVELY QUITE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AND AID IN PRODUCING HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TWENTIES. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE
DELTA-T VALUES FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
MORE SHORE PARALLEL SO THE FLURRIES MAY REMAIN JUST OFF SHORE.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE FROM THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID- THIRTIES.
A BETTER CHANCE (30-60%) FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE THIRTIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT BOTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WELL AS MANY OF THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST LITTLE OR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING. THE ECMWF PRECIP TYPE FAVORS RAIN OR SNOW BUT
DOES HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN. WE HAVE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, LESS THAN AN INCH AND ANY ICING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE MID-
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. THERE IS A CONCERN WE COULD BE TOO
WARM WITH HIGHS MONDAY AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF SNOWMELT. THERE
COULD BE STRATUS/FOG THAT DEVELOPS WHICH WOULD LIMIT HEATING AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WOULD
LIMIT MIXING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE ISN'T
HANDLING THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WELL WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES. WE HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-40%) FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MN WITH A 30% CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT INL BY THE MORNING HOURS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO AROUND 30
KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WAVES WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY PEAKING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AROUND 8 FEET FROM
GRAND PORTAGE TO TACONITE HARBOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SOME FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE HIGHER WAVES. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEST
OR SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY LEAD TO CHANGING ICE CONDITIONS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ140>146-
148-150.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...MELDE
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