594
FXUS63 KDLH 220920
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY, MOST
LIKELY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SAT-WED
HIGHS 5- 15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS MON-WED
WILL BE 20-30F ABOVE NORMAL.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH A 20-60 PERCENT PROBABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY, HIGHEST FAR NORTH AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MELTING SNOWPACK COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO
FOGGY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
TODAY INTO SUNDAY:
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WERE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THEY WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
WELL. FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THANKS TO WAA AND WEAK SHORTWAVES. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES. SNOWFALL
FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH IS EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEENS AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG DUE TO ADDED MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY TO MOVE IN SLOWER AND WE CONFINE
CHANCES, 20%, TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER THIRTIES FOR MOST WITH IT A BIT COLDER IN THE
ARROWHEAD.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY:
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 60%, HIGHEST IN FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS LITTLE PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SEVERAL OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
DO. STEEPER LOWER TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECENT FORCING FROM THE WAA, A SHORTWAVE, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. FOR THESE REASONS, WE LIKE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE GIVEN A LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE IN PLACE. WE
RAISED LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES AS WE WERE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE LOWS AROUND FREEZING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER IN THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS LOWS
BELOW FREEZING. WE HAVE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND MORE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER WEST WHERE
TEMPS ARE WARMER. QPF IS NOT VERY HIGH SO THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS, LESS THAN AN INCH, AND A GLAZE OF ICE IN SPOTS, MAINLY
IN THE ARROWHEAD BUT SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT ICING IS
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND EASTERN PARTS OF ST.
LOUIS COUNTY. WE TAPER POPS TO AROUND 20% MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
IS DUE PARTIALLY BECAUSE OF TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES IN ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH AND STRONGER THAN THE
ECMWF. AGAIN WE SIDE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS LOWER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DUE TO BETTER ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE FORECAST WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ONE
CAVEAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS. AFTER HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING THIS WEEKEND, ADDED MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MAY SUPPORT THE FOG/STRATUS WHICH COULD KNOCK DOWN
FORECASTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
THERE WILL BE CHANCES, 20-40%, FOR MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WHICH PRECLUDES HIGHER POPS AT THIS TIME. WE DO
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHICH PERIOD
MOST OF IT WILL FALL. HIGHS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES WITH THEM A FEW DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH SUPPORTS A WINTRY MIX AND FOR SOME JUST LIGHT SNOW. CONSENSUS
IS FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VERSUS HEAVY SNOW OR ICE.
TEMPERATURES:
HIGHS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30F ABOVE NORMAL
AND WE'LL BE CLOSE TO SETTING RECORD WARM LOWS IN A FEW SPOTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, EVEN AS A COUPLE
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TODAY, FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR INL WITH BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS SATURDAY EVENING, SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. IF
FOG DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE TO AT
LEAST MVFR. IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY AT HIB, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOWER AT AROUND A
10% CHANCE.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DECREASED
ENOUGH TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY FROM SILVER BAY TO THE
TWIN PORTS TO SAND ISLAND. THE WIND WILL DECREASE FURTHER TONIGHT
AND BACK TO SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND TO EASTERLY ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AT OR LOWER THAN 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140>142-148-150.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...MELDE
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