769
FXUS63 KDLH 270527
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
- TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A PLETHORA OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE AREA IN TWO ROUNDS. SNOW AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 449 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
DIURNAL CU HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND WHILE ALTOSTRATUS STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FEW RADAR
ECHOES WERE NOTED EARLIER FROM THE DEEPER CLOUDS THOUGH DRY AIR
BELOW THE CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
EVAPORATE THE SHOWERS BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CLOUD BASES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD PENDANT TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSING ONTARIO FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MAY STIR UP ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING. FOR THE MOMENT, HOWEVER, LEANED
TOWARD A COOLER SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST AND NUDGED TEMPS EVEN
COLDER FOR TYPICALLY COLD LOCATIONS.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. AMPLE MIXING SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WITH RH VALUES OF 15 TO 35
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 12 TO 18 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND WINDS WILL CREATE
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS BRINGING A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL YIELD A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW STARTING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES OF
ICE ACCUMULATION GREATER THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH HAVE TRENDED
LOWER WITH THE 12Z FORECAST MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD INTO THE US-53 AND I-35 CORRIDOR TO WARRANT A WINTER
STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE GREATEST ICE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP IS ESSENTIALLY FROM NEAR MOOSE LAKE UP THE NORTH SHORE TO
NEAR GRAND MARAIS. IT IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN
FREEZING RAIN THIS FAR NORTH SO A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OR
POSSIBLY ALL RAIN IS WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT.
THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLORADO LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE LOW TRACK AND THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST. AREAS IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY MISS OUT ON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SECOND ROUND. ANOTHER RISK OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICING IS
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH SNOW MORE LIKELY FARTHER
NORTH. THE SAME CAVEATS APPLY TO THE SECOND SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WINTER STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, AND PERHAPS MORE PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THERE IS ~10-15% CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, MAINLY FOR DLH/HIB/INL. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT SKIES REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE. A
BAND OF SNOW MOSTLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT CANADA MAY IMPACT INL
STARTING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY BE
POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE). LIGHT BUT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 449 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. GUSTS TO 25
KT ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE WATERS TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
A THIRD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ012-019>021-037.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-150.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ121-140>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140>142.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...HUYCK
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