993
FXUS63 KDLH 271143
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A PLETHORA OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE AREA IN TWO ROUNDS. SNOW AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE REGION AROUND NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
TODAY:
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY,
BUT THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS,
NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS BETWEEN
AROUND 20 AND 30 PERCENT. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND MILD WEATHER WITH
SOME SUNSHINE.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM #1 (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING):
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. AHEAD AND NORTH OF
THIS, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF FGEN SNOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER TONIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH (80%) THAT THIS
BAND WILL IMPACT MAINLY PLACES NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH ANY 6"+
AMOUNTS, SOME LESSER BUT STILL IMPACTFUL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-6"
RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BORDER, INCLUDING THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA, THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ICING UP TO
0.1" IS ALSO EXPECTED JUST FURTHER SOUTH, SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN ST.
LOUIS COUNTY.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON JUST HOW
MUCH ICING MAY OCCUR ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS JUST INLAND. A WINTER STORM WATCH THEREFORE REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THERMAL PROFILES ALL DEFINITELY SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN
WITH A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND PLENTY OF OROGRAPHICALLY-
LIFTED BELOW-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
MAY FALL IN LIEU OF FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. WHAT DOES REMAIN IN QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD THE POTENTIAL FOR QUARTER INCH OR HIGHER ICING
AMOUNTS COULD BE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AND AT THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES START TO RISE TO
AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN PLACES LIKE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND INLAND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, WHERE THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD LARGELY END BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT EVEN THERE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND FREEZING COULD
LEAD TO A BIT OF RUNOFF VERSUS ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS AROUND
0.25" TO 0.35" SHOULD CAP FREEZING RAIN TOTALS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM AROUND DULUTH TO TWO HARBORS. A SWEET
SPOT FROM TWO HARBORS TO AROUND LUTSEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HIGHER ICING WHERE QPF APPROACHING
0.5" TO 0.75" IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY FROM THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME (UP TO AROUND 35 MPH), WHICH
COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINTRY WEATHER, SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (~20-30% CHANCE, MAINLY
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN). MUCAPE IN THE ~500-1000 J/KG RANGE
COULD LEAD TO SOME MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE (2-5% CHANCE). OTHER HAZARDS SEEM NEARLY NON-
EXISTENT DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AT
AND NEAR THE SURFACE. GOTTA LOVE SPRING WEATHER IN THE
NORTHLAND, WHERE WE GET BOTH SUMMER AND WINTER WEATHER THREATS
IN THE SAME DAY!
BRIEF BREAK IN-BETWEEN LOWS (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY
AFTERNOON):
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST WINDS
GOING DESPITE A BREAK IN SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION IN THIS PERIOD.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN COULD LEAD TO SOME LINGERING LAKE-ENHANCED
LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR'S
SHORELINES, BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM #2 (SATURDAY LATE-AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY):
WE WILL HAVE BOTH SNOW AND ICE POTENTIAL WITH A MORE POTENT
COLORADO LOW THAT WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK RELATIVE TO
SYSTEM #1. WITH THAT SAID, MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND RESULTANT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION. A
GENERAL CHANGE FAVORING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH
THIS UPDATE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE THE MOST
FAVORED FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE, WITH ~30% CHANCE
FOR AMOUNTS THAT COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 6". LESSER BUT STILL
POTENTIALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY AMOUNTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS WELL. SNOW
CONSISTENCY WILL BE WET/HEAVY WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT.
ICING AMOUNTS ARE LESS CERTAIN, BUT SOME 0.1"+ AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE (~40% CHANCE), LEADING TO AN ICY SUNDAY MORNING. WINTER
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM FURTHER EAST INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN, BUT WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS
YET WITH CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY ON STORM TRACK AND PTYPES. WE
ALSO ALREADY HAVE WATCHES FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME,
SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR SYSTEM #2 FOR NOW.
BRIEF BREAK AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM #3 (MONDAY AND BEYOND):
A BRIEFLY QUIET BUT ALSO COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER COLORADO-STYLE LOW THAT MAY MOVE
NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND, BUT IT'S TOO
EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE OR HOW MUCH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TODAY, AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH DIRECTION TRANSITIONING TO EASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT INL
AND FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT HIB/DLH/BRD.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT ON GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE (~60%), BUT WE WILL HOLD ON TO
THE SHORT-DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS STARTING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT STARTING LATE TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO 30 KT AND A GALE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 6-12 FT ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND, THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GUSTY AND WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO AT LEAST 4 FT REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL
MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR MNZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ012-019>021-037.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-150.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ121-140>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140>142.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
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