257
FXUS63 KDLH 281147
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED PRECIPITATION AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND ICING IS THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, AND ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- ANOTHER STORM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING ICE AND SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WELL, HERE WE ARE WITH SOME MESSY WINTER WEATHER APPROACHING
(OH, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS). WE'RE LOOKING AT TWO SYSTEMS
STARTING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN POTENTIALLY
A THIRD ONE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
STORM #1 (TODAY AND TONIGHT):
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE HAS
CREATED QUITE AN INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WHICH
WAS EVIDENT ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND RADAR WITH QUITE A BIT OF
ANOMALOUS PROPAGATION. A NARROW BAND OF FGEN SNOW HAS DEVELOPED
JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, AND DESPITE RADAR ECHOES
APPEARING ALOFT OVER THE GRAND PORTAGE AREA, WEBCAMS REVEAL NO
PRECIPITATION FALLING DUE TO VERY DRY AIR LINGERING IN PLACE.
MOISTURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH, AS EVIDENT BY PLENTY OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTH OVER WISCONSIN, AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OVERCAST SKIES TO THE REGION TODAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY AND
TONIGHT, A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL INTRODUCE HIGH (>70%) CHANCES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (UP TO ~500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE) WILL BE FOUND OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND WHILE SEVERE THREATS REMAIN LOW,
THERE'S A ~2-5% CHANCE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS NORTH OF US 2, EVEN A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT THERE WITH SOME STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION.
SWITCHING GEARS TO DISCUSS THE WINTER PRECIPITATION THREAT, THE
FIRST POINT TO NOTE IS THAT THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE QUASI-CONVECTIVE DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THE STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MANY PLACES, AND WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
THIS MORNING, THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT PERSISTS. THAT SAID, THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE FGEN SNOW BAND TO THE NORTH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA MID-MORNING OR SO, AND THIS
WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO WARM UP. WHILE
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN STILL REMAINS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH THAT OVERALL ICE ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN FAVORED AREAS INLAND
OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE ARROWHEAD WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. EVEN IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING IN THE ARROWHEAD, THE QUASI-CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO MORE-OR-LESS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
TIMES WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ANY BRIEF BURSTS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO SOME RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO
COMPLETELY ICING ON CONTACT. WITH ALL THAT SAID, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LEFT UNALTERED FOR THIS UPDATE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE BORDER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 4 OR 5
INCHES, AND AMOUNTS THAT HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED
AROUND THE BORDER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACCOMPANY THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TODAY.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING, THE SOUTH
SHORE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ICING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS
DECREASED A BIT IN AMOUNTS. MOST PLACES MAY SEE JUST A LIGHT
GLAZE WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IF ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS MOVE OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA GOING INTO SATURDAY, LEADING TO A BRIEFLY QUIET PERIOD
LEADING INTO THE NEXT SYSTEM.
STORM #2 (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING):
A COLORADO-STYLE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SWATH OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION STARTING IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL ABOUND WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FIRMLY FAVORS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT HAVING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS, AND PERHAPS
CLIPPING PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND UP THE NORTH SHORE
WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A STRONG AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS LOW, PRODUCING AN INVERSION THAT COULD BRING A CORRIDOR OF
FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR THIS
AROUND PRICE COUNTY, WHICH IS WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. FURTHER NORTHWEST, WHERE MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED,
AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY UNCERTAIN. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME, AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A
MORE FOCUSED AREA OF FGEN SNOW THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME 6"+
TOTALS (~20-40% CHANCE). THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS FOR WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MAY SET UP AT THIS TIME,
KEEPING CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES
FURTHER NORTHWEST, BUT EXPANSIONS MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SNOW, AND THE SNOW CONSISTENCY SHOULD BE HEAVY AND WET. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES ON THIS ONE!
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK:
COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNDAY'S MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME FAVORABLE MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLORADO-STYLE LOW COULD BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHLAND AROUND TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK, AND WITH COLDER AIR LIKELY TO STILL BE IN PLACE, SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE. MORE UPDATES TO COME FOR THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL,
THOUGH ONSET OF IFR MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN MOST MODELS
SUGGEST BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAST TO DROP CEILINGS
TO MVFR IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH
TO THE SOUTH. NEARLY EVERY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW/SLEET AT
INL TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AT HIB/DLH. BRD MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY WITH MINIMAL VISIBILITY IMPACTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE (~30-50% CHANCE) AT HYR ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS ALSO A VERY SMALL CHANCE (10-20%) THIS MORNING AS WELL WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MARINE HEADLINES HAVE NOT BEEN CHANGED FOR THIS UPDATE.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH
TODAY. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS FROM
30 TO 40 KT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 13 FT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SLIGHTLY GOING INTO SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED, BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS ONLY A ~30% CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY. WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT REMAIN
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TWO STORMS PRODUCING THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR MNZ012-018>021-026-037.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
LSZ121-140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page