510
FXUS63 KDLH 282316
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
616 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MESSY SYSTEM #1 CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SNOW, AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- MESSY SYSTEM #2 EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BANDED
HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
- A BRIEF LULL INTO THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY -
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING:
MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE SLAMS INTO A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED OVER
THE AREA. QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH HIGH
20S/LOW 30S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LOW 80S IN THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE! THIS HAS LED TO BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND TRAINING OVER NORTHERN MN AND THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. MUCH OF THIS HAS BEEN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
TODAY, WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. AS WE GO
INTO THE EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL PRECIPITATION TYPES
ARE LIKELY TO ERR MORE ON THE FROZEN SIDE OF THINGS. ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS SHOULD MEAN SNOW, AND THEN FARTHER SOUTH
BECOME FREEZING RAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND MOSTLY CONTAINED TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A GLAZE TO A
TENTH OF INCH ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NE MN AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF WISCONSIN. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATION OF LAKE COUNTY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LAX LAKE, FINLAND, AND ISABELLA.
DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONS INTO THIS EVENING, SOME OF THE NORTH SHORE
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
ABOVE FREEZING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
THERE COULD EASILY BE AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM THAT BECOMES SEVERE
WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONGS AS THE SOLE THREAT.
ROUND 2: LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A WEAK COLORADO LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
AND CROSS TO THE ENE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SET THE NORTHLAND UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THIS STORM HAS STEADILY TRENDED NORTH OVER THE LAST
DAY OR SO, PUTTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR BOTH HEAVY
BANDED SNOWFALL AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. BECAUSE SOME OF
THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WE'RE
NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT LATE SEASON HIGH SUN ANGLE ISSUES. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM STORM TRACK (WHICH IS STILL WOBBLING) AND
WARM NOSE STRENGTH. AT THE MOMENT, THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY BANDED
SNOW STRETCH ALONG AN AREA FROM THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR, INTO THE
TWIN PORTS, AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WHERE THE PROBABILITY
FOR 6" OR MORE IS 40-60%, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE OF A MIX IS EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
AND UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE. IN PRICE COUNTY AND EAST
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EXISTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 0.25" (40-60% CHANCE). FOR THIS, WE HAVE
UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO AN ICE STORM WARNING. ELSEWHERE
IN NW WI AND IN PINE, CARLTON, AND SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. DEPENDING ON EXACT STORM TRACK,
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER UP THE NORTH SHORE.
ANOTHER ONE! TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY:
FOLLOWING A VERY BRIEF MOMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY, YET ANOTHER
TROUGH RUNS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL A BIT FAR
OUT YET FOR SPECIFICS, BUT APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY A SNOW MAKER WITH A
60-85% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2" AND A 40-60% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN
6" OF SNOW. OF COURSE, THIS COULD CHANGE, BUT WE'LL BE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON IT.
FURTHER BEYOND THAT STORM LOOKS A BIT QUIETER WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A MESS OF CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR HYR, BUT THE CHANCES
ARE LOW, SO DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. EXPECTED NORTHEAST
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS OF 15-25
KNOTS, UP TO 35 KNOTS AT DLH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN
END AFTER MIDNIGHT; HOWEVER, IT WILL RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT MESSY SYSTEM APPROACHES. MEANWHILE, IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF FOR MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT LESS OF A CHANCE AT KINL.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25-45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVES OF 7-12 FEET.
THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A LULL SATURDAY WHEN GUSTS DROP BELOW GALE
THRESHOLDS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND RAMP DOWN INTO MONDAY. GALE WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-011-
018-019-021-026-037.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ012-020.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ037-038.
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
WIZ009.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...LEVENS
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