735
FXUS63 KDLH 290853
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTS FROM SYSTEM #1 WERE DECREASING WITH SOME AREAS OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN A BREAK FOR MOST
WILL DEVELOP.
- MESSY SYSTEM #2 PUSHES PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY SNOW AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
- A BRIEF BREAK IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT THEN SYSTEM #3 TAKES AIM AT THE NORTHLAND LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TODAY:
AREA RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON LIGHT SNOW,
FREEZING RAIN, OR A WINTRY MIX ROUGHLY FROM AROUND THE TWIN
PORTS EAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS WILL EXIT OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS
LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN RIGHT AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR,
INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CHURN OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IT COULD BE FLURRIES OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE DO
CARRY SOME POPS THIS MORNING FOR THESE CHANCES THEN GO DRY FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND.
STRONG OFF LAKE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AT
TIMES CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY:
WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE NEXT WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WAVE
WILL ARRIVE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO EASTERN IOWA BY 12Z SUNDAY. A WARM NOSE WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND, ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT INTO MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND AND WHERE THIS WARM NOSE LIES WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON EXPECTED WEATHER TYPES AND AMOUNTS. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ICE REMAINS OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST THROUGH BURNETT TO
SOUTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. NORTH OF THERE, MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OR BECOME JUST SNOW. THERE REMAINS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED QPF AND WE BLENDED OUR QPF WITH THE
LATEST ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT LOWER ON THE NORTH SIDE INCLUDING
OVER DULUTH AND POINTS WEST TO SOUTHWEST. BASED ON ALL THE
LATEST INFORMATION, WE'RE FORECASTING ICE AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING OF A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS PINE COUNTY TO A
MAXIMUM OF A QUARTER TO JUST OVER A HALF INCH IN PRICE COUNTY.
THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR ICE EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OVER
SAWYER/PRICE COUNTIES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS RAPIDLY DECREASE
FURTHER NORTH IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES WITH 5-8" EXPECTED. THERE WILL
BE SOME BANDING THAT OCCURS WITH STRONG FGEN FORCING PASSING
THROUGH WITH THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL LOW BUT TO PICK OUT THIS
AREA AT THIS TIME IS STILL CHALLENGING AND WILL BE FROM EAST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SNOW AMOUNTS DROP
OFF SOUTH THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES TO 1 TO 5 INCHES. SNOW
AMOUNTS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO THE TWIN PORTS WILL BE FROM
2 TO 5 INCHES.
BASED ON THIS FORECAST, WE KEPT THE ICE STORM WARNING GOING FOR
PRICE COUNTY, ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WASHBURN, SAWYER,
BAYFIELD, ASHLAND, AND IRON COUNTIES FOR A COMBO OF ICE AND/OR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER WEST WE WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH TO THE TWIN PORTS REGION. STRONG WINDS AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45
MPH AT TIMES WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH MOST OF IT FALLING TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON
SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH SHORE WHICH WILL SEE IT LINGER
LONGER. THIS IS A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
ISSUES STILL IN PLAY AS WELL AS SOME MINOR TRACK ADJUSTMENTS.
CHECK BACK TODAY FOR UPDATES.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY:
MOST WILL BE DRY MONDAY INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE FROM
30 TO 40 DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
YET ANOTHER STORM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHLAND MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE THERE IS A 55-95% CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL OF 2" OR
MORE AND 20 TO 70% CHANCE FOR 6" OR MORE. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ARE OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND LOWEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE MORE ON THIS STORM
WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND ANOTHER
QUICKLY MOVES IN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INL WILL
LIKELY BE THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AND THEN IMPROVING TO VFR SATURDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP MIXED FREEZING DRIZZLE, SLEET, AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ONGOING
AT DLH FOR THE NEXT ~4-6 HOURS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE AT
BRD/HIB/HYR IN THAT TIMEFRAME AS WELL. VISIBILITIES IMPROVE
NEARLY EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT REMAINING PREDOMINANTLY
MVFR AT DLH WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR LIGHT FOG. SNOW OR MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SO EXPECT DECLINING VISIBILITIES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TO MVFR. HIB/INL MAY REMAIN VFR FOR
VISIBILITY AS MOST OF THE SNOW STAYS SOUTH.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT DECREASE SOME SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHEN THEY
BECOME NORTHWEST. WINDS TODAY INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE FROM
15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO AROUND 40 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA. THE NORTH SHORE WILL
SEE WINDS A BIT LOWER LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THEY RAMP UP AGAIN TONIGHT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-
019>021-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ026-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR MNZ034-036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR MNZ037-038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ001>004-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR WIZ001-006.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR WIZ002>004-007-008.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...MELDE
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