375
FXUS63 KDLH 292347
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WI. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND COMES TO AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
- A SECOND COLORADO LOW ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND PERSIST OVER THE CWA INTO SUNDAY.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY FROM GOES SHOWS THIS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WITH THE LARGEST IMPACTS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST WI. THIS
WEEKEND'S COLORADO LOW WILL BRING ALL FLAVORS OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND TO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WHERE THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
CREATE A WARM NOSE ALOFT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN INTERIOR NORTHERN
WI REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UPDATE, THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN THE
STORM TRACK AND AREA OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THIS
SOUTHEAST SHIFT IN THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL 80% CONFIDENCE
IN HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25" OR GREATER IN PRICE COUNTY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS HIGHEST IN PRICE
COUNTY, IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.2-0.25" OF ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR WEST AS BURNETT COUNTY. THE 12Z HREF FRAM
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF 0.25" OR GREATER OF ICE ALONG
A LINE FROM BURNETT TO PRICE COUNTIES, WHICH IS REASONABLE AFTER
LOOKING AT CAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN BURNETT COUNTY, THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
EXPANDED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED ICE AMOUNTS.
OUTSIDE OF UPGRADING BURNETT COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, THE
REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, ICE STORM WARNINGS, AND
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN STATUS QUO SINCE THE LAST FORECAST
UPDATE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF BAYFIELD, ASHLAND, AND IRON COUNTIES WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ELSEWHERE. AS FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS, HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PRICE COUNTY, WHERE 0.25 TO 0.5"
OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLORADO LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PATTERN WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IN NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY, WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPS EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, IF NOT A BIT WARMER, TO WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS ANOTHER COLORADO LOW THAT WILL BE ARRIVING
LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY PER NAEFS
PERCENTILES, WITH MSLP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE IN
THE 0.5-1ST PERCENTILE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THIS COLORADO LOW TO TAP INTO DEEP
GULF MOISTURE AND ADVECT THAT DEEP MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. CURRENT STORM TRACK FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS PLACES THE LOW
CENTER ROUGHLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI, WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH
OF THE CWA WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR AND PLACE THE CWA UNDERNEATH THE
TROWAL.
THIS POTENTIAL STORM TRACK INTRODUCES A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY BANDED
SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MN, AS WELL AS LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY.
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 6" OF SNOW FROM THE 13Z NBM HAS A WIDE
SWATH OF A 50+% CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY TO
12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL IS MODERATE-HIGH AT THIS TIME, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE BOOMS AND/OR BUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MSLP CENTERS HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPATIAL SPREAD,
WHICH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH WAA OCCURS AND
THE LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH COULD BOTH REDUCE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, IT ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR FAVORABLE TO BANDED SNOW DEVELOPMENT INLAND AS WELL AS
OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OVERALL, THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOLLOWING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY'S
LOW PRESSURE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE LATEST RAP MODEL FORECASTS AND PIREP NEAR DLH FROM AROUND
2230Z INDICATE A PERSISTENT WARM NOSE ALOFT. THE RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS INCREASED AT DLH AND BRD UNTIL ABOUT 03Z.
STILL EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION. VISIBILITY WILL TREND TOWARD IFR IN
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. HIB SHOULD STAY MVFR VISIBILITY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, DECREASING SOME ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHEN
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF
SUNDAY WILL BE FROM 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO AROUND 40
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA. WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGH TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY IN THE TWIN PORTS
AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE, WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET OCCASIONALLY
BEING HIGHER. THE NORTH SHORE WILL SEE WINDS A BIT LOWER LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY RAMP UP AGAIN TONIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ034-036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ037-038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ001.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ002>004-
006>008.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...UNRUH
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