859
FXUS63 KDLH 300838
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
338 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND SLEET CONTINUED EARLY THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN STILL RECEIVING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY BUT IT WILL TAKE TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR THAT TO HAPPEN
ACROSS PRICE COUNTY.
- ANOTHER STORM WILL START TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY WITH PEAK IMPACTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR
SNOWFALL OF 6" OR GREATER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NORTHLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TODAY INTO TONIGHT:
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WERE OCCURRING EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA REMAINED DRY. THERE WAS A DRY SLOT WORKING
NORTH INTO SAWYER AND WESTERN PRICE COUNTY AS OF 0830Z. THE
SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL IOWA AND IT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WEST TO
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE DRY SLOT WILL FILL
BACK IN WITH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA AS AN AREA OF FGEN FORCING MOVES THROUGH WITH THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL LOW. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE, WITH MORE FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET OVER PRICE AND
SOUTHEAST SAWYER POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN IRON/ASHLAND THIS
MORNING. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH, TAKING UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST PRICE COUNTY. WE WILL KEEP
ALL THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN TACT FOR NOW. WE THOUGHT
ABOUT MOVING UP THE EXPIRATION FOR CROW WING/AITKIN BUT WILL LET
IT CONTINUE FOR NOW AS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THERE OF A HALF TO
1.5" IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL ICE A GLAZE TO AS MUCH AS A HALF
INCH IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM BURNETT COUNTY EAST THROUGH WASHBURN,
SAWYER, PRICE AND SOUTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER PRICE COUNTY WHERE THE ICE STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. ICE STORM WARNING LEVEL ICE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN WASHBURN AND SAWYER COUNTIES
BUT THOSE AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND ARE
HANDLED IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
COVERAGE OF SNOW WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AND OCCUR INTO MONDAY.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM 30 TO AROUND 40 DEGREES, HIGHEST OVER
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON MONDAY AIDING IN MELTING SOME OF THE SNOW AND ICE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
ANY DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH YET ANOTHER STORM
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
MOVING A COLORADO LOW INTO OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY WITH
IT DEPARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH THE EC AND NAEFS
FORECASTING A STRONG LOW WITH ITS PRESSURE IN THE 0.5-1ST
PERCENTILE. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE LOW LOCATIONS FOR 00Z THURSDAY
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE LOW TRACK BUT THERE ARE
MANY OF THE SOLUTIONS STILL FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
THE NORTHLAND. THE 07Z SUN NBM STILL HAS A LARGE AREA OF 50%+
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL OF 6" OR MORE. THE ECMWF EFI AND SOT
VALUES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THIS BEING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL PRODUCER. BEFORE YOU SNOW LOVERS GET TOO EXCITED
THOUGH, THERE ARE LOW TRACKS THAT WOULD BE TOO FAR WEST AND A
FEW TOO FAR EAST FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW BUT THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND.
LATE WEEK:
THE PATTERN FINALLY FAVORS LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ALONG THE
PACIFIC NW COAST PUTTING THE NORTHLAND UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A FAIRLY MESSY FORECAST AS A WINTER STORM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
IN THE NEXT ~15 HOURS. WILL BREAK IT DOWN A BIT FURTHER BY
TERMINAL:
HYR: MAINLY FREEZING RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH
SLEET COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. VISIBILITY MAY ACTUALLY SIT AT VFR
FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASES TO MVFR AS SLEET
AND EVENTUALLY SNOW MIX IN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS HOVER AROUND MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING,
AND BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW
MID-DAY, KEEPING MVFR VISIBILITIES PERSISTENT INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR IN
THE EVENING.
BRD: SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT, WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. COULDN'T RULE OUT VERY
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES, BUT MVFR IS MOST LIKELY (70% CHANCE).
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE TO VFR MID-DAY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LIGHTEN UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
DLH: BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP PERSISTENT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH CEILINGS
OSCILLATING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THROUGH
THE MORNING, MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE
AFTERNOON AS SNOW ENDS AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.
HIB: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT HIB
IF THEY GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE SNOW IN THE NEXT 2-5 HOURS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
INL: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS TO ~15 KT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED THIS MORNING WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS OF 35 TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE WIND WILL BACK SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH A BIT WITH GALES BECOMING LESS
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK FURTHER TO NORTH
TONIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS AND ELEVATED WAVES CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.
THE WIND WILL BACK FURTHER ON MONDAY TO WEST OR NORTHWEST FOR
MOST WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING STRONG EARLY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNINGS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ034-036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ037-038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ001.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ002>004-006>008.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-140-
143>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ121-143>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ140-146>148-150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ141-142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ141-142.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...MELDE
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