669
FXUS63 KDLH 310041
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
741 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WITH SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL WINTER ACCUMULATIONS FOR PRICE
COUNTY.
- A DRY DAY ON TAP TOMORROW WITH MINIMUM RH FALLING BELOW 20
PERCENT WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR FIRE
WEATHER.
- ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH PEAK IMPACTS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH A
50-95% FOR SNOWFALL OF 6" OR GREATER PRIMARILY IN THE TWIN
PORTS AND MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE NORTHLAND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 739 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WITH ONE STORM EXITING AND THE NEXT ON THE DOORSTEP, PLENTY OF
CONFIDENCE TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
PROBABLY WILL NEED A FEW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO LOW RH ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING:
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EAST-CENTRAL MN AND THE TWIN
PORTS VICINITY, PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
IS LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN MUCH OF NORTHWEST WI, A
700-MB FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 0.25-0.75"/HR HAS SET UP, BUT WILL SLOWLY
TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING, EXITING NORTH-
CENTRAL WI BY LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION (SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN) IS OCCURRING IN PRICE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL SHIFT OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE
850-MB FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWBAND IN NW WI MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST WI WHERE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. PRICE COUNTY IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING
RAIN OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY. SINCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING PRICE COUNTY
LATER THIS EVENING, THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
10 PM FOR THERE. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SLICK TRAVEL IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY UNDER THE SNOW
BAND OF HIGHER SNOW RATES.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY:
DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES TONIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE COLDEST HIGHS IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER COULD
MIX IN A BIT MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS A COLORADO LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT
TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO
MN OR WI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF
FOR 00Z THURSDAY (I.E. WEDNESDAY EVENING) ENSEMBLE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATIONS STILL SHOW A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN THE LOW LOCATION
RANGING FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHERN WI. THE GEFS ALSO HAS SOME
SPREAD, AS WELL, BUT GENERALLY CENTERS THE LOW PRESSURE AT 00Z
THURSDAY FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN MN OR NORTHWEST WI. THE
EXACT LOW TRACK WILL PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS, AS WILL BE EXPLAINED A BIT
FARTHER IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH ECMWF AND
NAEFS SURFACE PRESSURE FORECASTS SETTLING INTO THE 0.5 TO 1ST
PERCENTILE OF REFORECAST AND CFSR CLIMATOLOGY, RESPECTIVELY.
REGARDLESS OF THE LOW TRACK, THERE APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR 6" OR GREATER RANGES FROM 50 TO 95% FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MN, AS WELL AS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE AND PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL MN. THE HIGHEST OF
THESE PROBABILITIES (90%+) REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WHEN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY, WHILE
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TUESDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATION OF 75-100 MB
COMBINED WITH THIS FAVORABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD HELP TO
PROVIDE INCREASED PRECIPITATION RATES, THOUGH THERE IS A PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL DEPTH OF THE THERMAL PROFILE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE 0C
TO -10C THAT WOULD SUGGEST RIMING OF SNOW CRYSTALS AND WORK TO
LOWER SNOW RATIOS. A BIG CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK AND AND ITS RESULT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW CAN PUSH INTO THE NORTHLAND, LEADING TO
POTENTIAL RAIN OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN AND CUTTING INTO
SNOW TOTALS. AT THE MOMENT, NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LOOKS MORE
FAVORED TO SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS PART OF
THE REASON FOR THE LOWER PROBABILITIES OF 6"+ OF SNOW THERE.
ADDITIONALLY, IF THE LOW WERE TO TAKE SOME OF THE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACKS, THERE IS CONCERN THAT A DRY SLOT COULD
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND
FARTHER CUT INTO SNOW/PRECIPITATION TOTALS. KEEP UP TO DATE WITH
FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TRACK AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS INCREASES.
LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND:
THE PATTERN FINALLY FAVORS LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP LATE THIS
WORK WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN, WITH ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS THIS WEEKEND
POSSIBLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SNOW CHANCES FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
BECOMING PREDOMINATELY VFR AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS THE LARGE
SYSTEM EXITS. A FEW LINGERING ISSUES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
IN REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND -SN. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GALES ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE EAST OF PORT WING UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND ELEVATED WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTH SHORE INTO TWIN PORTS AND HAVE BEEN ISSUED AFTER
THE GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE EXPIRE EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THE WIND WILL BACK FURTHER ON MONDAY TO WEST OR NORTHWEST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS,
THOUGH ELEVATED WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE EAST OF PORT WING
DON'T DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL MIDDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED AS THE PROBABILITY OF GALE-FORCE
WIND GUSTS ARE 30-50% FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ121-144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ140>143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ146>148-150.
UPDATE...WOLFE
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page