628
FXUS63 KDLH 310951
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
451 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY (80% CHANCE) FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE)
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PASSING
THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
PLENTY OF NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR.
TODAY'S MAIN WEATHER SITUATION WILL BE NEAR-CRITICAL DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20-25% EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA IN PLACES THAT
DIDN'T RECEIVE SNOWFALL FROM THE LAST SYSTEM (BASICALLY MOST
PLACES NORTHWEST OF BRAINERD TO THE TWIN PORTS). HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING ARE EXPECTED, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST HIGHS COULD BE A SMIDGE LOW FOR
PLACES WITHOUT ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND, SO IT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHS APPROACHING MID 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
AFTER SOME BRIEF RIDGING TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT WITH EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AS A STRONG COLORADO LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS
ARE ALL GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND. ENSEMBLE TRACK
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN RATHER SPREAD OUT THOUGH, AND SUBTLE
TRACK CHANGES WILL MEAN NOTABLY DIFFERENT IMPACTS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING
ACCUMULATING AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR
MUCH, IF NOT MOST, OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ABOUT 50-90% CHANCE
FOR 6"+ FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE WITH QPF ENHANCEMENT FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND A SPRINKLE
OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ANOTHER AREA MAY BE AROUND THE BRAINERD
LAKES OR SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY, WHERE DEPENDING ON THE STORM
TRACK, THERE COULD BE SOME MORE FOCUSED MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. SOME ACCUMULATIONS AROUND OR IN
EXCESS OF A FOOT CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THOUGH CHANCES FOR THAT
REMAIN AT ABOUT 30% AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AND 30-50% ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS PERHAPS AMONG THE GREATEST AREAS OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE TRACK DIFFERENCES. EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND AN ABOVE-FREEZING INVERSION ALOFT THAT WILL
RESULT IN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OR EVEN PLAIN RAIN ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AN INITIAL ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
MAY AFFECT MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING, AND A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS LIKELY, IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL DRY
SLOT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN A BIT FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR PLACES LIKE THE TWIN PORTS AND I-35 CORRIDOR,
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE CAPPED OFF A BIT BY THIS WARM NOSE.
EVEN IF IT REMAINS ALL SNOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT, WARM
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (NOT TO MENTION A HIGH SUN ANGLE) MAKE
LOWER SNOW RATIOS AND LESS EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL A
REAL POSSIBILITY.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, WE GET PWATS IN THE 50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE
OF CLIMATOLOGY (NOT EXTRAORDINARILY IMPRESSIVE, BUT WE WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF STRONG SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING TO WRING A LOT
OF IT OUT). THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FOR SNOW IS AROUND 0.8 TO
0.9 WITH A LOW SHIFT OF TAILS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA,
SUGGESTING PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT LIKELY NOT BEING SURPRISED
BY ANY MORE EXTREME TOTALS THAN WHAT WE'RE FORECASTING.
AS FOR THE GENERAL TIMELINE, LOOK FOR SNOW (OR MAYBE BRIEF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET) TO MOVE IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THEN BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THE INITIAL WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLACES LIKE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL SEE THE BULK OF THEIR SNOW FROM THIS,
WHILE THIS WILL JUST BE THE FIRST ROUND FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SNOWFALL RATES IN THE 0.5" TO 1" PER HOUR RANGE ARE
QUITE POSSIBLE. THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF TROWAL AND FGEN-FORCED
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIMILAR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT NOTE ALSO THAT SLRS SHOULD START TO FALL
INTO THE 5-10:1 RANGE (WET AND HEAVY) AS TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WARM UP A BIT. IT'S LOOKING LIKE THE WORST
CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL BE AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN GUSTY
EAST WINDS TO 30 MPH (LOCALLY TO 40 MPH NORTH SHORE) WILL LEAD
TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING SNOW.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT LOCAL
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES. AS THE LOW PASSES TO
THE NORTHEAST, SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP RATES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY, DECREASING IN SPEED.
AFTER SOME WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING PERHAPS INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN FOR A BIT. WE
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND, SO SOME COOLER AIR INTRUSIONS AND CLIPPER SYSTEMS COULD
BRING PERIODIC LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
AN AREA OF CLOUDS IS PASSING OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS VFR. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
WINDS HAVE DECREASED QUICKLY THIS MORNING AT MOST PLACES, SO
SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. LINGERING WAVES
UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS, AND
SOME 25 KT GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND GRAND
PORTAGE, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE.
OTHERWISE, WINDS CALM DOWN BY MID-DAY.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY EAST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY (80-100%
CHANCE) BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT. IN ADDITION, GALES ARE
POSSIBLE (30-60% CHANCE) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 10
FT POSSIBLE. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. HEAVY MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN UP GRADUALLY ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-
146-147.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ140>147-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ148-
150.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
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