756
FXUS63 KDLH 312331
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW AND WINTRY MIX TO
THE NORTHLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY (60-80%
CHANCE) FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 12
INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE (50% CHANCE) ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
AND AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES.
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH LOWER TOTALS.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
CORRECTED FOR TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERNS ARE
FOR AREAS WITHOUT SNOW COVER AFTER THE WEEKEND SNOW. THERE
COULD BE A REPEAT OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE
MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
A COLORADO LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONVEY A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A WINTRY MIX OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS A BIT MORE WARM AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING THE WINTRY MIX
FARTHER WEST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND LAKESHORE PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD. WITH THE WARM (AND DRY) AIR INTRUSION, THERE IS
AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO EARLIER FORECASTS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL
UP TO PENNY-SIZE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MUCAPE VALUES OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEARLY
1500 J/KG. ANOTHER INTERESTING NOTE FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS
A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS BEHAVIOR IS INDICATIVE OF ADDITIONAL LATENT HEAT
RELEASE RESULTING IN DISPLACEMENT OF THE MASS AND MOMENTUM
FIELDS IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE GEFS
MEAN AND SURFACE LOW POSITIONS ALSO HINTS AT A POSSIBLE
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTATION DRY AIR WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM AND WILL TAKE TIME
TO SATURATE. THINKING LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TUESDAY
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO HAYWARD AREA
LINE. PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTHEAST WITH TIME TUESDAY EVENING
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL SNOW
TO START. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
INTRODUCE A WINTRY MIX TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CONCERNS, THE HEATING
POWER OF THE EARLY APRIL SUN, EVEN THROUGH THICK CLOUDS, WILL
LIMIT IMPACTS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
STAYS BELOW FREEZING WHILE WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EAST OF A
SPOONER TO HAYWARD TO HURLEY LINE. THE ODDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER THAT AREA ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET AND WILL LIKELY CLING
TO TREES AND POWER LINES. WHEN THE GUSTY WINDS ARE CONSIDERED,
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHETHER THE
HEAVIEST RATES WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THAT TIME. A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO THE ARROWHEAD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHING
SOUTH FROM FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND WARMER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHLAND
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE OUT OF THE WEST
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLORADO LOW IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOMORROW. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND
SNOWFALL RAMPING UP.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL YIELD WINDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN BACK EASTERLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. GALES OF 35
TO 40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND AND WAVES, A MIX OF RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS,
AND SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ140>147-150.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...HUYCK
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