039
FXUS63 KDLH 011134
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
634 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY. HEAVY
SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS
1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK, BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IMPACTS LIKE THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
A COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY,
WITH SNOW BEGINNING AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING, AN INCREASE IN OMEGA
OVER THE BAND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY SNOW, WITH SOME PORTIONS OF THE BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR. LATER ON OVERNIGHT, THE
BAND OF OMEGA WILL DISSIPATE AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL LOWER FOR
ALL EXCEPT THE NORTH SHORE. THE COMBINATION OF LAKE AND
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
RATES HIGHER THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH RATES
UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR IN SOME SPOTS. ONE ASPECT THAT INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO RIMING AND WET, HEAVIER SNOW. AS
WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, A TROWAL IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA, ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO HEAVIER SNOW UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE 8-12 INCHES
WHERE THE TROWAL SETS UP AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. LOCALIZED
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD BE UP TO 15 INCHES. BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL THROUGHOUT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY ALOFT
BEFORE THE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM NOSE FORMING WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION OVER TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO MIXED PRECIPITATION SUCH AS ICE
PELLETS AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LAST A SHORT PERIOD
BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH ABOVE FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONS TO RAIN. A GLAZE OF ICE
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
ACCUMULATE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE NORTH
WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING, BUT SHOULD LIKELY
REMAIN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH BACK TO SNOW.
ADVECTION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COULD ALSO
LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
A COUPLE OTHER SYSTEMS THIS WEEK WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHLAND, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL BESIDES WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
APPROACHING BRD AND SHOULD REACH THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
CONDITIONS TO LIFR ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LLWS IS EXPECTED
NEAR HYR TONIGHT AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. LLWS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS
20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND WAVES 4-7 FT ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. GALES AND WAVES OF
7 TO 12 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNINGS AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SHORES OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ012-018>021-025-026-035-037.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ033-034-036-038.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>144-150.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>144-
150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
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