872
FXUS63 KDLH 180804
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
304 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA (LITTLE ACCUMULATION).
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. AREA RADAR SHOWED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN
OCCURRING AS OF 08Z BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM, THERE WERE MORE
RETURNS MOVING NORTHEAST. WE HAVE CHANCES, 20 TO 50%, FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY, MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE AT OR
LESS THAN FIFTEEN HUNDREDS OF AN INCH, HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE FOG THIS MORNING, MAINLY CLOSE TO
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL LATE TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN. LITTLE
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WE HAVE CHANCES, AROUND 20%, FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE COLDER AIR. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES.
MOST WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
COMING IN A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER AND BE IN THE
FIFTIES FOR MOST.
THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUT SOME TRACK/TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN. GENERALLY, THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN WISCONSIN/LAKE MICHIGAN REGION
BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS LOW TRACKS
FURTHER WEST AND EAST BUT OVERALL THE SPREAD IS DECREASING.
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA REMAINING
DRY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED QUITE A BIT AND WE HAVE
VALUES AROUND AN INCH ACROSS PRICE COUNTY, TAPERING TO A QUARTER
INCH ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TO THE TWIN PORTS AND LESSER AMOUNTS
WEST OF THERE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL,
ESPECIALLY IF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST OR THE TRACK MOVES FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE 01Z
NBM HAS CHANCES FOR 1"+ OF SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FROM 20
TO 40% WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND IN THE
SNOW BELT OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL OF 4"+ IS
10 TO 20%. SOME FACTORS THAT COULD PUSH THESE PROBABILITIES
HIGHER IS A QUICKER DROP AND COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A TRACK THAT SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. A
FURTHER EASTERLY TRACK WOULD LOWER AMOUNTS. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID FORTIES OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD TO THE MID
FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY FROM THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS WEST.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
RAIN COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AS OF 0530Z BUT AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUED, MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF AREA BUT THERE ARE POCKETS
WHERE THEIR HIGHER. OVERALL, IFR OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER. KBRD WILL
EVENTUALLY TREND TOWARD VFR. A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO MORE NORTHWEST
THEN BACK FURTHER SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY SUNDAY FROM 10 TO 20
KNOTS.
MARINE FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST BUT
MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
144>148-150.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140>143.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
MARINE...MELDE
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