377
FXUS63 KDLH 202354
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SPREADS NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW
MIXING IN OR BECOMING DOMINANT IN SPOTS EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN HIGHEST OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY ACROSS THE UP OF
MICHIGAN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN, WITH LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
4-5PM. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING, OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MN. FORCING AND MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MN, FROM
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
COOLING LOW LEVEL PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO
RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD, NORTH
SHORE, AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE WET AND HEAVY, AND THE TRANSITION WILL DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY PROFILES COOL. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
COULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE SNOW BELT IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD, AND IRON AND PRICE
COUNTY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR
BRAINERD LAKES NORTHWARD TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
BROAD TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL PARADE
ACROSS THE REGION, PROVIDING A FEW MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES, TEMPERATURES COOL
ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
ADDED IN A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE
RAIN WILL BRING LOW CEILINGS AS WELL TO DLH AND HYR WHERE IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT HIB IF THE RAIN CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE
KEPT IN WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT TRENDS ARE THAT THE RAIN REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE RAIN AS WELL. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TOMORROW MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN TO DLH AND HYR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT A BIT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT DLH AND
HYR AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE TWIN PORTS AREA, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO TACONITE HARBOR AND ALL OF THE SOUTH SHORE
STARTING AT 4AM CDT MONDAY. THE WIND WILL BACK MONDAY TO
NORTHERLY THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ142-
143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...HA
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