120
FXUS63 KDLH 211106
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
606 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WITH SOME WINTRY MIX TODAY ACROSS NW WI. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ROTATE INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND UP
ALONG THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE
- ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS
ENTERING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME STORM POTENTIAL
TUESDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
THE PANHANDLE HOOK LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING
WITH ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IMPACTING NW WI AND INTO THE TWIN
PORTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE LARGELY REPORTING RAIN BUT LOOKING
AT CORRELATION COEFFICIENT ON DUAL POL RADAR REVEALS A WINTRY MIX
ALOFT WITH SOME BRIGHT BANDING OF WATER COATED SNOWFLAKES. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS COOLER LAYER WILL SINK LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN COMBINATION WITH COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. GIVEN THE
WARMTH ALREADY IN PLACE WE HAVE LIMITED SNOW LIQUID RATIOS TO LESS
THAN 10:1 LEADING TO A VERY SLUSHY SNOWFALL. OVERALL, THERE IS A 50-
70% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW FOR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
AND NORTHERN BAYFIELD, THE SAME CAN ALSO BE SAID FOR THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL NORTHEAST TOWARDS
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING
OFF WEST TO EAST. ODDLY ENOUGH, ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THERE
WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 5-7 KFT. THIS IS ENTIRELY INCUMBENT ON THE CLOUD DECK
CURRENTLY IN PLACE CLEARING OUT THOUGH. IF SKIES OUT WEST CAN CLEAR
BY 10AM THEN WE STAND A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING MIN RHS PLUMMET TO
25% OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY:
NOT A VERY LONG BREAK IN THE ACTION AS A NORTHERN PLAINS LOW BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. A BROAD AREA OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING
INSTIGATING SOME SHOWERS. THERMAL PROFILES A WARM ENOUGH THAT THIS
EVENT WILL BE ALL RAIN. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME EMBEDDED STORMS.
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
WOULDN'T DISCOUNT A COUPLE OF MORE ROBUST CELLS DEVELOPING CLOSER
TO THE LOW AS IT OCCLUDES IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
MIDWEEK-WEEKEND:
CONFIDENCE TAKES A BIT OF A HIT AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDWEEK
TIME FRAME AS THE 00Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STRUGGLES
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE CUT OFF LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR
NOW, WE HAVE OSCILLATED BETWEEN 0-30% POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. THE FORECAST STARTS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS
WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE MSLP SHOWS A
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE US
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY SOME INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS
ARE STILL KIND OF STAGGERING WITH THE GFS ROUGHLY 12 HRS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT WE SHOULD HAVE A
QUIET SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
ONGOING WINTRY MIX ACROSS NW WI AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS WITH SNOW
BEING SLIGHTLY MORE DOMINANT THIS MORNING. CEILINGS LARGELY REMAIN
IN THE IFR RANGE WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL
OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF AND
CEILINGS CLEARING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER WITH THESE BUT AT THIS TIME THE
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LESS THAN 15% SO HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
A PANHANDLE HOOK LOW IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE LAKE
THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING WILL BE INCREASED
AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE DUE TO FUNNELING WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30 KTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLE. THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT WINDS TO BACK
TO OUT OF THE WEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND WILL BEGIN TO
EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WAVES ALONG THE OUTER APOSTLE
ISLANDS MAY TAKE ADDITIONAL TIME TO SUBSIDE WHICH MAY WARRANT AN
EXTENSION DEPENDING ON TRENDS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ142-
143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ144-
145.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
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