878
FXUS63 KDLH 212021
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH TWO OTHER
ROUNDS THURSDAY AND THIS SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO DECREASES SKY
COVER OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND THE SOUTH SHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TODAY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING. AS THAT FRONT EMBEDDED IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, A
BAND OF RAIN WILL ENTER FIRST IN THE BRAINERD LAKES A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CHANCES OF A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL PERSIST IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MUCH LIGHTER (LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH) RAIN EXTENDING INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN. A WEAK NOSE OF CAPE IS PROGGED ON GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO CREATE THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE (10
PERCENT) FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN EAST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND THE BRAINERD LAKES. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT LIKELY THOUGH TOMORROW.
A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY BREEZE OFF THE BIG LAKE KEEPS MANY NORTH
SHORE TO TWIN PORTS AND EAST-FACING PARTS OF THE SOUTH SHORE
COOLER TUESDAY.
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY CREATING CHANCES
(40 TO 60 PERCENT) OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE IRON RANGE. THIS THURSDAY TIME PERIOD ALSO SEES BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CAPE VALUES SEEN ON MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 50
TO 250 J/KG. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS
THURSDAY SYSTEM THOUGH.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS A VERY DRY
AIRMASS SLIDES OVERHEARD FROM CANADA. SATURDAY WILL BE A DAY TO
WATCH FOR VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNALS FOR A LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
MVFR STRATUS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXIT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS
AND CLEAR SKIES BUILD OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW TERMINALS MAY (40-50%) CHANCE SEE LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOPMENT 06-12Z TONIGHT UNDER CALM WINDS. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHEASTERLY 09-12Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS TODAY BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING IN THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ARM OF THE LAKE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY (60-70% CHANCE) MAY BE NEEDED AT THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OCCURS WEDNESDAY, BUT WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS
UNDER A STABLE LAKE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
146>148-150.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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