066
FXUS63 KDLH 212340
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH TWO OTHER
ROUNDS THURSDAY AND THIS SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO DECREASES SKY
COVER OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND THE SOUTH SHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TODAY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING. AS THAT FRONT EMBEDDED IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, A
BAND OF RAIN WILL ENTER FIRST IN THE BRAINERD LAKES A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CHANCES OF A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL PERSIST IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MUCH LIGHTER (LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH) RAIN EXTENDING INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN. A WEAK NOSE OF CAPE IS PROGGED ON GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO CREATE THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE (10
PERCENT) FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN EAST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND THE BRAINERD LAKES. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT LIKELY THOUGH TOMORROW.
A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY BREEZE OFF THE BIG LAKE KEEPS MANY NORTH
SHORE TO TWIN PORTS AND EAST-FACING PARTS OF THE SOUTH SHORE
COOLER TUESDAY.
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY CREATING CHANCES
(40 TO 60 PERCENT) OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE IRON RANGE. THIS THURSDAY TIME PERIOD ALSO SEES BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CAPE VALUES SEEN ON MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 50
TO 250 J/KG. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS
THURSDAY SYSTEM THOUGH.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS A VERY DRY
AIRMASS SLIDES OVERHEARD FROM CANADA. SATURDAY WILL BE A DAY TO
WATCH FOR VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNALS FOR A LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT MOST FORECAST TERMINALS. LOCALIZED FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE THAT VIS BELOW 3 MILES COULD IMPACT HYR
BETWEEN 08-12Z.
A SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND, ARRIVING
AT BRD AROUND 10Z. AS RAINFALL SPREADS OVER THE REGION, CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR HEIGHTS, AND THEN IFR, AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH GUSTS OF 17-20KTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS TODAY BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING IN THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ARM OF THE LAKE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY (60-70% CHANCE) MAY BE NEEDED AT THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OCCURS WEDNESDAY, BUT WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS
UNDER A STABLE LAKE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...NLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page