482
FXUS63 KDLH 220523
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH TWO OTHER
ROUNDS THURSDAY AND THIS SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO DECREASES SKY
COVER OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND THE SOUTH SHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETS UP OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TODAY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING. AS THAT FRONT EMBEDDED IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, A
BAND OF RAIN WILL ENTER FIRST IN THE BRAINERD LAKES A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CHANCES OF A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL PERSIST IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MUCH LIGHTER (LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH) RAIN EXTENDING INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN. A WEAK NOSE OF CAPE IS PROGGED ON GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO CREATE THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE (10
PERCENT) FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN EAST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND THE BRAINERD LAKES. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT LIKELY THOUGH TOMORROW.
A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY BREEZE OFF THE BIG LAKE KEEPS MANY NORTH
SHORE TO TWIN PORTS AND EAST-FACING PARTS OF THE SOUTH SHORE
COOLER TUESDAY.
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY CREATING CHANCES
(40 TO 60 PERCENT) OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE IRON RANGE. THIS THURSDAY TIME PERIOD ALSO SEES BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CAPE VALUES SEEN ON MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 50
TO 250 J/KG. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS
THURSDAY SYSTEM THOUGH.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS A VERY DRY
AIRMASS SLIDES OVERHEARD FROM CANADA. SATURDAY WILL BE A DAY TO
WATCH FOR VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNALS FOR A LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ALONGSIDE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
WINDS. ALREADY SEEING SOME AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR FOG DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING TODAY, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING HYR HAS
DECREASED TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
BANDED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT BRD TO BE THE FIRST TO SEE
THIS RAIN BY AROUND 08Z AND AFFECTING BRAINERD THROUGH THE
MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND TERMINALS FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXITING LOCATIONS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER THIS
EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THEN REMAIN LOW AS MVFR OR NEAR-IFR FOR THE EVENING,
WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS AS VFR TO MVFR. BRD AND HYR
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND PRECIPITATION ENDS FIRST FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
THERE IS ALSO AN EXPECTATION FOR MUCH LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD FOR TERMINALS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN ONSHORE WINDS,
WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DAYTIME TODAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS TODAY BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING IN THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ARM OF THE LAKE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY (60-70% CHANCE) MAY BE NEEDED AT THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OCCURS WEDNESDAY, BUT WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS
UNDER A STABLE LAKE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...NLY
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