255
FXUS63 KDLH 222341
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- PERIODS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY
PM INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA LIFTS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
OUT OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LINGERING LIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BESIDES THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT, AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM (60-80% CHANCE)
FOR PARTS OF COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. FROM
THIS CONFIDENCE FOR COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG BEGINNING AFTER 9-10
PM THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AS THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO PULLS FURTHER EASTWARD.
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY THURSDAY AS A RESULT WITH A NOTABLE LAKE
BREEZE COOLING SHORELINE-ADJACENT LOCATIONS THAT AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES BUILD INTO EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INLAND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS THE MORNING FORECAST
TRENDED LESS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY, GLOBAL MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUED THAT TREND AND FURTHER INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN ONLY RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
A BROAD AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE
CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN
THE NORTHLAND. THIS MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A
DAY OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE REGION, BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED WINDS AROUND 10
MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG I-35 AND US HWY
53 AND WESTWARD IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. DEPENDING ON FUEL
CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OF FORECAST WIND TRENDS, SATURDAY COULD BE A DAY OF NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ARRIVES SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE IN A WARM, UNSTABLE SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY PM AND THROUGH MONDAY. THE LARGER WEATHER
SYSTEM PATTERN SETTING UP ALSO FAVORS A CURRENTLY LOW-END
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLUSTER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TREND INTACT OF
FAVORING INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS LIFTING NORTH WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
KDLH/KHIB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BRIEFLY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR, AND
IT COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE FOG, INCLUDING AT KDLH. THE FOG WILL LIFT WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST WITH MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KINL.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARM AND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS EVENING DECREASE IN SPEED AND SHIFT
WESTERLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG IS
FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING SO A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE NEARSHORE WATERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 20 KNOTS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WIND SHIFT BACK TO EASTERLY THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ020-021.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148-150.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...MELDE
MARINE...NLY
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