644
FXUS63 KDLH 230521
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1221 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- PERIODS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY
PM INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA LIFTS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
OUT OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LINGERING LIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BESIDES THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT, AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM (60-80% CHANCE)
FOR PARTS OF COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. FROM
THIS CONFIDENCE FOR COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG BEGINNING AFTER 9-10
PM THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AS THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO PULLS FURTHER EASTWARD.
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY THURSDAY AS A RESULT WITH A NOTABLE LAKE
BREEZE COOLING SHORELINE-ADJACENT LOCATIONS THAT AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES BUILD INTO EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INLAND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS THE MORNING FORECAST
TRENDED LESS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY, GLOBAL MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUED THAT TREND AND FURTHER INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN ONLY RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
A BROAD AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE
CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN
THE NORTHLAND. THIS MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A
DAY OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE REGION, BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED WINDS AROUND 10
MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG I-35 AND US HWY
53 AND WESTWARD IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. DEPENDING ON FUEL
CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OF FORECAST WIND TRENDS, SATURDAY COULD BE A DAY OF NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ARRIVES SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE IN A WARM, UNSTABLE SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY PM AND THROUGH MONDAY. THE LARGER WEATHER
SYSTEM PATTERN SETTING UP ALSO FAVORS A CURRENTLY LOW-END
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLUSTER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TREND INTACT OF
FAVORING INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND. RADAR SHOWS A
FEW ECHOES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH
AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SOME FOG OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR SEEPING INTO NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE FOG
PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY AS SUBSEQUENT DATA HAS BEEN
ROLLING IN. THE CHANCES OF THIS FOG MAKING IT UP TO DLH IS NOW LESS
THAN 50%. HIB ON THE OTHER HAND COULD STILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING. LASTLY, SOME INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR HYR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARM AND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS EVENING DECREASE IN SPEED AND SHIFT
WESTERLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG IS
FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING SO A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE NEARSHORE WATERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 20 KNOTS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WIND SHIFT BACK TO EASTERLY THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
145>148-150.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...NLY
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