775
FXUS63 KDLH 230840
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL ERODE BY MID MORNING
- INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (20-30%) ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.
- VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON STARTING SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
A CUT OFF LOW HAS STALLED ALONG THE BORDER OF MANITOBA AND ONTARIO
PROMOTING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE ARE POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN OUR CURRENT FLOW
REGIME THAT WHEN ACTED UPON THE WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS PRODUCING PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CAMS WOULD
SUGGEST THE AREA WHERE WE ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS COMBINATION IS
THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WI. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
20-30% THROUGH TODAY AND INTRODUCED SOME WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES IN
AREAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A FOG BANK ALONG NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY
STRETCHING BACK INTO CARLTON COUNTY. THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED WITH THE LATEST HIGH
RES GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CANCEL THE NORTH SHORE FOG ADVISORY.
THURSDAY:
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STILLNESS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS
TO PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO THE AREA. AN 850MB LOW
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN HALF PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS. THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THIS WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY OVER NW WI WHERE OUR COUNTIES IN
THE SE MAY SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AT THE MOMENT TO BE CONCERNED WITH STORMS WITH THIS
WAVE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MARK THE
START OF A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FOR THE NORTHLAND. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WOULD DRAW GULF MOISTURE UP INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
GEFS PWATS ARE IN EXCESS OF 1" PLACING THEM OVER THE 99TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL SEE DEWPOINTS AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. FOR NOW, THE SPC HAS AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH HIGHLIGHTED FOR A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER STARTING ON
MONDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS THE CSU ML PROBS HAVE SHOWN
AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOODS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND. RADAR SHOWS A
FEW ECHOES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH
AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SOME FOG OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR SEEPING INTO NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE FOG
PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY AS SUBSEQUENT DATA HAS BEEN
ROLLING IN. THE CHANCES OF THIS FOG MAKING IT UP TO DLH IS NOW LESS
THAN 50%. HIB ON THE OTHER HAND COULD STILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING. LASTLY, SOME INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR HYR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
PRIMARILY FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND UP TOWARDS PORT WING. THIS FOG
IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY 10AM. WINS ARE MOSTLY NORTH TO START
THE PERIOD BUT WILL TURN TO OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF A
COUPLE HOURS WHERE SOME ELEVATED GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SHORT TIME SPAN AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WE HAVE
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL TAKE HOLD TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 KTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ145-146.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
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