899
FXUS63 KDLH 231743
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL ERODE BY MID MORNING
- INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (20-30%) ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.
- VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON STARTING SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
A CUT OFF LOW HAS STALLED ALONG THE BORDER OF MANITOBA AND ONTARIO
PROMOTING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE ARE POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN OUR CURRENT FLOW
REGIME THAT WHEN ACTED UPON THE WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS PRODUCING PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CAMS WOULD
SUGGEST THE AREA WHERE WE ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS COMBINATION IS
THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WI. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
20-30% THROUGH TODAY AND INTRODUCED SOME WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES IN
AREAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A FOG BANK ALONG NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY
STRETCHING BACK INTO CARLTON COUNTY. THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED WITH THE LATEST HIGH
RES GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CANCEL THE NORTH SHORE FOG ADVISORY.
THURSDAY:
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STILLNESS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS
TO PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO THE AREA. AN 850MB LOW
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN HALF PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS. THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THIS WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY OVER NW WI WHERE OUR COUNTIES IN
THE SE MAY SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AT THE MOMENT TO BE CONCERNED WITH STORMS WITH THIS
WAVE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MARK THE
START OF A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FOR THE NORTHLAND. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WOULD DRAW GULF MOISTURE UP INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE
GEFS PWATS ARE IN EXCESS OF 1" PLACING THEM OVER THE 99TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL SEE DEWPOINTS AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. FOR NOW, THE SPC HAS AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH HIGHLIGHTED FOR A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER STARTING ON
MONDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS THE CSU ML PROBS HAVE SHOWN
AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOODS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST WITH LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A BLANKET OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO IMPACT
INL/HIB FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD ALSO IMPACT DLH AT TIMES BRIEFLY
TONIGHT, THOUGH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ERODE ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO KEEP CEILINGS VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT INL, THOUGH THE MAIN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
THEN EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
PRIMARILY FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND UP TOWARDS PORT WING. THIS FOG
IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY 10AM. WINS ARE MOSTLY NORTH TO START
THE PERIOD BUT WILL TURN TO OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF A
COUPLE HOURS WHERE SOME ELEVATED GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SHORT TIME SPAN AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WE HAVE
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL TAKE HOLD TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 KTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...BRITT
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