160
FXUS63 KDLH 232339
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN RETURNS MAINLY TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THE WEATHER VARIES A BIT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD WHERE THERE ARE SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S BEING REPORTED. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S PREVAIL ESPECIALLY UP AROUND
KOOCHICHING COUNTY WHERE A LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS IS SWINGING
THROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST.
TONIGHT, THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT OTHERWISE, IT WILL
MOSTLY JUST BE CLOUDY WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOUND AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SOME BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL
AGREEMENT REMAINS HIGH THAT MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN DRY, EXCEPT PERHAPS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO
TWIN PORTS, WHERE UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION ARE
POSSIBLE (10-50% CHANCE). HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A HALF INCH ARE MORE LIKELY IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY (~40-60% CHANCE).
THIS WILL BE A SYNOPTIC-DRIVEN RAIN, SO VARIATIONS IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY ONLY EXPECTED AS A GRADUAL NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO EXPECT QUIET
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST AND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
BY SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LAKE SUPERIOR ARE EXPECTED.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY
ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL LOOKING LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING ON SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PERHAPS
INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THEN SYNOPTIC RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER, PWAT VALUES MAY
APPROACH AN INCH OR SO, LEADING TO A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTER THE INITIAL WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND MONDAY MORNING, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, AND SPC
HIGHLIGHTS A ~15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. CSU ML PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE
ELEVATED, SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS COME MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS COVERED NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING AND WERE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
ONLY TAKES THESE CEILINGS A BIT FURTHER EAST AND REMAINING OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DIP TO IFR WILL OCCUR
AT KINL AT TIMES. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL TONIGHT AND
WE ADDED A MENTION AT KINL.
THE GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, THEN
SWITCH TO NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT. SIMILAR WIND DIRECTIONS
AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
GRADUALLY TREND A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SPEEDS AND GUSTS BELOW 20 KT. GOING INTO MONDAY, SOME STRONGER
WINDS THAT COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT COULD DEVELOP.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...MELDE
MARINE...JDS
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