463
FXUS63 KDLH 240900
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
400 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENTER FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXIT BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
WILL BE THROUGH NW WI.
- DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MAY LEAD TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE (15%) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN INTO NW WI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BORDER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND. SATELLITE STILL
SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF A STRATUS
DECK CHURNING OVER NORTHERN MN. THERE IS DRY MID LEVELS FROM THE
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE BUT JUST ENOUGH LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THE NORTHERN TIER
STRATUS DECK WILL BEGIN TO THIN WITH DRIZZLE CHANCES DIMINISHING.
MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AS OUR MEAN WIND FLOW TURNS TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE REGION. THE LATEST
CAMS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE RAIN IN ACROSS
OUR SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. A RATHER SMALL DRY LOW LEVEL SHOULD
SUCCUMB TO THE SATURATION IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A STALLED
OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WILL PREVENT BOTH A DEEP
MOISTURE PUSH AND INSTABILITY FROM RAMPING UP. THUS,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE AT TIMES. RAINFALL WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
NW WI.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY:
THIS WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE DRY AIR
SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE AREA RAISING THE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER. SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST. WINDS
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AS THE AIR MASS
SHUFFLES OFF TO THE EAST.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND SWINGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INDUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY'S PRECIPITATION WILL BE
BROUGHT ABOUT THROUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS
AN EML MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY MONDAY WE GET
A STRONG PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING THRUSTED INTO THE AREA AS WE
SET UP A GULF CONNECTION. THE GEFS HAS SEEN AN INCREASE IN PWATS
AND IS NOW SHOWING VALUES OF 1.25" WHICH IS OVER THE MAX OF
CLIMATOLOGY. ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY ELEMENT IS THE WARMTH EXPECTED
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ALONG OUR SOUTH POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 70S WITH SOME DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THE ATMOSPHERIC SET
UP IS CERTAINLY FAVORING SEVERE WEATHER. SPC IS STILL CARRYING A
SLIGHT RISK (15%) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN AND
NW WI FOR MONDAY. WON'T DIVE TOO MUCH INTO THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETER SPACE AS MANY OF THEM WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK IS IMPACTING NORTHERN MN THIS EVENING
WITH SOME EMBEDDED DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL START TO
RETREAT AND THIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH INL BEING THE LAST TERMINAL
TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. MORE CLOUDS WILL START POURING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN ENTERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL BACK TO MVFR TOMORROW
EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS HYR AND POSSIBLY BRD/DLH.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WILL MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ZONES THAT EXITS FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL VESSELS
DOESN'T ARRIVE TILL MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
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