940
FXUS63 KDLH 101743
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING ON THE WING OF
AN 850 MB LLJ. FRONTOGENESIS INCREASED ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE JET. RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A SUBTLE WAVE
ALOFT AROUND 700 MB AND WEAK DIVERGENCE. HIGH-RES MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE CAPTURED THIS SIGNAL RELATIVELY WELL. THUS WE HAVE ADDED
SPRINKLES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AS WELL
AND SHOULD HELP CONTINUE THE FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE DAY.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE JAMESTOWN, ND TO
HARVEY, ND VICINITY, WHERE THE STRONGEST ASCENT IS LOCATED.
WHILE THE RISK OF STORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
IS QUITE LOW, A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOME RETURN
FLOW WINDS PERMEATING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
LAKE WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE AREAS FURTHER INLAND WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST LEADING TO
SOME HAZY SKIES FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE. AS WE WARM THROUGH THE DAY
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SMOKE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR THIS
LOOKS TO BE VERY DILUTED AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LAKE
BREEZE FURTHER MITIGATING ITS IMPACTS. WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AS MIN RHS FALL TO AROUND 20% IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY:
TEMPS-
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHLAND AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE MIDWEST. THE MAIN
CULPRIT UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS OUT OVER THE GULF COAST OF TX AND LA
WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE STREAMING OVER THE REGION AS WE FIND OURSELVES CAUGHT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 WILL BE QUITE WARM AT 16C WHICH HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY TEN YEARS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS UNUSUAL
WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE
80S AND 90S ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA WITH THE REST OF THE REGION IN
THE 70S AND 80S. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PREVENT MUCH LAKE
BREEZE RELIEF EXPECT FOR THOSE DIRECTLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. FROM
A RECORDS PERSPECTIVE, SUNDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO BREAK OR
TIE MANY OF THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPS. MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO BREAK OR TIE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS.
FIRE WEATHER-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH RIDGING ALOFT LEAVES LITTLE
ROOM FOR ANY MOISTURE TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHLAND. WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE AND DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT SOME EFFICIENT MIXING DAYS. MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE ADDITION OF ENHANCED WIND
SPEEDS FROM A LOW LEVEL JET STALLED OVER THE REGION RAISES CONCERNS
FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WHICH GIVEN THE PAST TRENDS
OF MODEL RUNS LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING
ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE SAME AREAS HIGHLIGHTED UNDER THE CURRENT
WATCH.
WED - FRIDAY:
THE BLOCKING PATTEN BREAKS DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSITIONING INTO AN OPEN WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
AGAIN WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BY
THURSDAY, THE 00Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
A SYSTEM WILL PIVOT OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. IT STILL A WAYS OUT BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE DEWPOINTS WE MAY SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP. THE CSU ML SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY
FORECAST IS ALSO HINTING TOWARDS SOME DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY AS
WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN WEST-CENTRAL MN THAT COULD
IMPACT BRD FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DON'T EXPECT THIS TO BE IMPACTFUL. OVERNIGHT, A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN MINNESOTA LATER TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS FUNNELING WINDS MAY
OVERPERFORM COMPARED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERTAKE THE LAKE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 11: FORECAST RECORD
KDLH: 81 83/1991
KINL: 89 83/1993
KBRD: 90 92/1900
KHIB: 86 83/1991
KASX: 83 85/1992
MAY 12:
KINL: 84 86/1991
KBRD: 85 88/1940
MAY 13:
KINL: 84 87/1977
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 12: FORECAST RECORD
KDLH: 54 56/1991
KINL: 60 55/2023
KBRD: 58 60/1991
KHIB: 52 53/1944
KASX: 53 58/1894
MAY 13:
KDLH: 57 54/1991
KINL: 61 55/1987
KHIB: 55 52/1987
KASX: 57 58/1987
MAY 14:
KINL: 60 58/1977
KBRD: 62 62/1998
KHIB: 54 54/1998
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...HUYCK
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...BRITT
CLIMATE...BRITT
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