621
FXUS63 KDLH 102107
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
407 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
- DRY AND NEAR-RECORD WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SUNDAY WITH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS LATER THIS WEEK, WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
ENDING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
REST OF TODAY - TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO HAS LED TO
PRIMARILY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LAKE BREEZE
PUSHING INTO LAND AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW/MID
60S, WHILE AREAS FARTHER INLAND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S INTO
MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT HAVE KEPT SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE ALOFT, LEADING TO A THINNER HAZE IN THE SKY, BUT THIS
HASN'T MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES,
SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST
OF THIS SHOULD NOT REACH THE GROUND, AND ANY THAT DOES SHOULDN'T
LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MID-
EVENING AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH 8 PM ASIDE FROM THE
NORTH SHORE AND THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOLER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS (20% CHANCE) SLIDE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL, GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULDN'T SEE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY:
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME: 1) NEAR-
RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES AND 2) NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
1) TEMPERATURES:
AN ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A CUT-OFF LOW STALLING
OUT OVER THE GULF COAST. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHLAND WILL STREAM STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE
NORTHLAND AND PUMP UP TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 16C-19C
RANGE, WHICH IS AT OR ABOVE THE MAX VALUE IN SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MAY AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS, MN (INL) AND
NEAR THE MAX VALUE FOR CHANHASSEN, MN (MPX). AS FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, EXPECT AREAS NOT IMMEDIATELY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OR
IN THE NORTH SHORE TO SEE WIDESPREAD HIGHS WARM INTO THE 80S,
WITH PORTIONS OF THE BRAINERD LAKES AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN EVEN
POSSIBLY TOUCHING THE LOW 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP
A FEW DEGREES FROM PRIOR FORECASTS DUE TO THE STRONG SIGNAL IN
MODELS FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO STAY
WARMER, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S UNTIL MID-WEEK. AS A
RESULT, SEVERAL DAYS OF RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE
"CLIMATE SECTION" BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND RECORDS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS.
2) FIRE WEATHER:
THE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DOES NOT PROVIDE
MUCH, IF ANY, OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO GET INTO THE
NORTHLAND. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY WITH GOOD MIXING
EACH DAY AS SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET PARKED OVER THE AREA. WITH GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS--POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 MPH IN
SPOTS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY--AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (%)
PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, THIS COMBINATION COULD
LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH NIGHT AND RECOVERY
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE THAT GOOD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, EITHER. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST WI AND UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN NORTHEAST MN FOR SUNDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MN
ON MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR NORTHWEST WI ON MONDAY,
AS WELL. TUESDAY ALSO REMAINS BREEZY AND DRY, THOUGH RHS LOOK
SLIGHTLY LESS LOW AND WINDS, WHILE STILL GUSTY, DON'T APPEAR
QUITE AS STRONG. NONETHELESS, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
TUESDAY FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY - LATE NEXT WEEK:
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-
LEVEL REX BLOCK AND RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BREAKS DOWN
AS A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PUSHES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A BIT OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY OF THIS TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EVIDENT IN NCEP GFS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
(IVT) PLOTS THAT WOULD FAVOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE AREA, AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY FOR
THE NORTHLAND, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AS HINTED AT BY THE CSU
AND NSSL SEVERE MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE, AND A DAY 6 (12 UTC
THURSDAY - 12 UTC FRIDAY) SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 15% RISK AREA
FOR THE ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN VICINITY.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO A REPRIEVE FROM THE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO 60S) FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN WEST-CENTRAL MN THAT COULD
IMPACT BRD FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DON'T EXPECT THIS TO BE IMPACTFUL. OVERNIGHT, A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN MINNESOTA LATER TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT LOCALLY TO 20
KNOTS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING DUE TO FUNNELING
WINDS. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED
THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED ON SUNDAY WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. HAVE ISSUED SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS WHERE THE WINDS COULD BLOW
INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE STABLE LAYER
ON THE LAKE. ALSO ADDED IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GRAND
MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WAVES
AND WINDS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER VESSELS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN IT PENETRATING THE LAKE'S STABLE LAYER PRECLUDES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 11: FORECAST RECORD
KDLH: 83 83/1991
KINL: 89 83/1993
KBRD: 92 92/1900
KHIB: 89 83/1991
KASX: 84 85/1992
MAY 12:
KDLH: 81 84/1940
KINL: 86 86/1991
KBRD: 89 88/1940
KHIB: 86 86/1977
MAY 13:
KINL: 86 87/1977
KBRD: 90 91/1900
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 12: FORECAST RECORD
KDLH: 56 56/1991
KINL: 61 55/2023
KBRD: 61 60/1991
KHIB: 53 53/1944
KASX: 55 58/1894
MAY 13:
KDLH: 56 54/1991
KINL: 60 55/1987
KHIB: 53 52/1987
KASX: 55 58/1987
MAY 14:
KINL: 61 58/1977
KBRD: 62 62/1998
KHIB: 55 54/1998
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018-019-025-026-033>038.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>037.
WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ121-143>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
CLIMATE...ROTHSTEIN
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