270
FXUS63 KDLH 110824
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS LATER THIS WEEK, WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
ENDING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS SET UP SHOP OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WE HAVE SEEN SOME SHOWERS PERCOLATING ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY STAYING NORTH OF
THE BORDER ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
TODAY - TUESDAY:
TEMPS-
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHLAND AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE MIDWEST. THE MAIN
CULPRIT UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS OUT OVER THE GULF COAST OF TX AND LA
WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE STREAMING OVER THE REGION AS WE FIND OURSELVES CAUGHT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 WILL BE QUITE WARM AT 16-20C WHICH HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY TEN YEARS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS UNUSUAL
WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE
80S AND 90S ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA WITH THE REST OF THE REGION IN
THE 70S AND 80S. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PREVENT MUCH LAKE
BREEZE RELIEF EXPECT FOR THOSE DIRECTLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. FROM
A RECORDS PERSPECTIVE, SUNDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO BREAK OR TIE
MANY OF THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPS. MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO BREAK OR TIE RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS.
FIRE WEATHER-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH RIDGING ALOFT LEAVES LITTLE
ROOM FOR ANY MOISTURE TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHLAND. WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE AND DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT SOME EFFICIENT MIXING DAYS. MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE ADDITION OF ENHANCED WIND
SPEEDS FROM A LOW LEVEL JET STALLED OVER THE REGION RAISES CONCERNS
FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND EXCEPT THE NORTH SHORE. THE PATTERN
DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED. WINDS START TO EASE UP A BIT ON TUESDAY BUT
WE STILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY.
WED - FRIDAY:
THE BLOCKING PATTEN BREAKS DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSITIONING INTO AN OPEN WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
AGAIN WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 500MB
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT OF THIS TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALSO HAS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR BEING
5 DAYS OUT BRINGING A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UP
THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS SET UP COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GULF MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND EVIDENT BY THE INCREASE IN IVT ACCORDING TO
THE GFS. PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE CSU ML SEVERE
PROBABILITIES CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION AND SPC ALSO HAS A
MENTION OF AREAS TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE GUN FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SHOWERS GLIDING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT INL THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING OUT. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET WILL STALL OUT OVER THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT BEFORE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE
AFTER DAY BREAK. THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CRANK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND
BLEED OVER FROM THE ONSHORE TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE ZONES IN WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 11: FORECAST RECORD
KDLH: 83 83/1991
KINL: 89 83/1993
KBRD: 92 92/1900
KHIB: 88 83/1991
KASX: 83 85/1992
MAY 12:
KDLH: 81 84/1940
KINL: 86 86/1991
KBRD: 89 88/1940
KHIB: 86 86/1977
MAY 13:
KDLH: 83 86/1977
KINL: 87 87/1977
KBRD: 90 91/1900
KASX: 87 90/1977
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 12: FORECAST RECORD
KDLH: 59 56/1991
KINL: 66 55/2023
KBRD: 62 60/1991
KHIB: 59 53/1944
KASX: 60 58/1894
MAY 13:
KDLH: 57 54/1991
KINL: 64 55/1987
KHIB: 56 52/1987
KASX: 58 58/1987
MAY 14:
KINL: 61 58/1977
KBRD: 62 62/1998
KHIB: 54 54/1998
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>037.
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR LSZ121-143>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
CLIMATE...BRITT
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