689
FXUS63 KDLH 112111
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
411 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY, WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES FOR MONDAY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS LATER THIS WEEK, WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
ENDING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
REST OF TODAY - TONIGHT:
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA HAS PUSHED A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM ISN'T PROVIDING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AREA, IT HAS PLACED A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP STRONG WIND GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH, LOCALLY 40 MPH, GOING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SHALLOW INVERSION OVERNIGHT RESULTS IN WIND GUSTS DROPPING OFF A
LITTLE BIT. RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH VERY WARM 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 17-20C--WHICH IS NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR--HAS RESULTED IN HOT TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, PARTICULARLY AREAS NOT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S IN NW WI AND MID 80S TO LOW
90S IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE MN WILL LIKELY ECLIPSE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEE THE "CLIMATE SECTION"
BELOW FOR DETAILS. ADDITIONALLY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PLUMMETING INTO THE 15-25% RANGE WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND ASIDE
FROM THE NORTH SHORE. THESE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT THERE WON'T BE MUCH
FOR MOISTURE RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY ONLY RISES
TO AROUND 40-55% IN NE MN AND 45-65% IN WI. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ONLY COOL INTO THE 50S TO LOW/MID 60S, SO RECORD WARM
LOWS COULD BE BROKEN TONIGHT.
MONDAY - TUESDAY:
RIDGING ALOFT DUE TO A REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS COMING WEEK, KEEPING THE RECORD TO
NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO
LINGER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
TODAY (20-30 MPH GUSTS MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER STILL ON
TUESDAY). CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S (%) IS IN STORE ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY, WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN NE MN
HAVING BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS/GUSTS WILL BE
ON THE LOWER SIDE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NW WI
ON MONDAY, SO HAVE OPTED FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
THERE AT THIS TIME. RH ON TUESDAY DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS LOW AS
TODAY OR MONDAY, WITH CURRENT FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
20-30% IN NE MN (LOWEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN) AND 25-35% IN NW
WI. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POSSIBLE NEAR-CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
MUCH LOWER TUESDAY.
RECORD HIGH AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS WELL. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH LOW 90S IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MN.
WEDNESDAY - NEXT WEEKEND:
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-
LEVEL REX BLOCK AND RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BREAKS DOWN
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND ENSEMBLE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SHOW
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS TROUGH
FOR BEING 4-5 DAYS OUT, WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NAEFS MSLP SHOWS THE DEEPNESS OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATER-WEEK SYSTEM HAVING A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 OR MORE YEARS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
GOOD, AS EVIDENCED BY 90TH PERCENTILE PWATS IN THE NAEFS
FORECAST RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND SHOWN IN NCEP GFS
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) PLOTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY, BUT MORESO IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, AS WELL
AS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. NBM 48-HOUR RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.5" ARE 50-70% ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY FOR THE NORTHLAND, STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AS ARE
STILL HINTED AT BY THE CSU AND NSSL SEVERE MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE AND A DAY 5 (12 UTC THURSDAY - 12 UTC FRIDAY) SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 15% RISK AREA BEING LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION AND OVER ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN WI.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALSO BRING A STARK CONTRAST IN
TEMPERATURES TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING, WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (50S TO 60S)
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW SPOTS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ALSO DROP BACK INTO
THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, SO CAN'T EVEN RULE OUT
SOME FROSTS OR FREEZES IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT SOME BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO FREEZING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, BRIEFLY
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AS AN INVERSION SETS UP, AND THEN RETURN
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER THE
REGION.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLEED OVER FROM THE ONSHORE TO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS INTO TONIGHT, WITH WINDS AND WAVES TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
THE ZONES IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 11: FORECAST RECORD
KDLH: 83 83/1991
KINL: 90 83/1993
KBRD: 92 92/1900
KHIB: 88 83/1991
KASX: 83 85/1992
MAY 12:
KDLH: 83 84/1940
KINL: 89 86/1991
KBRD: 89 88/1940
KHIB: 87 86/1977
MAY 13:
KDLH: 83 86/1977
KINL: 87 87/1977
KBRD: 90 91/1900
KASX: 87 90/1977
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 12: FORECAST RECORD
KDLH: 59 56/1991
KINL: 64 55/2023
KBRD: 62 60/1991
KHIB: 56 53/1944
KASX: 56 58/1894
MAY 13:
KDLH: 57 54/1991
KINL: 62 55/1987
KHIB: 55 52/1987
KASX: 58 58/1987
MAY 14:
KINL: 59 58/1977
KBRD: 61 62/1998
KHIB: 54 54/1998
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-
018-019-025-026-033>038.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018-019-025-026-033>038.
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142-
143.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
CLIMATE...ROTHSTEIN
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