884
FXUS63 KDLH 130454
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1154 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS REMAINING BREEZY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS LATER THIS WEEK, WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ENDING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT):
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 20% HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP DIURNAL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. IN ADDITION TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO
30 MPH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AS WAA
CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS.
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, EXCLUDING ASHLAND, IRON, AND PRICE
COUNTIES IN WI. THOSE 3 COUNTIES WILL LIKELY (60% CHANCE) SEE WINDS
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 MPH TOMORROW, LIMITING THE CONCERN FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA, AN UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
TOMORROW AS MIN RH ONCE AGAIN DROPS TO 25% OR LOWER AND
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. AS WINDS BEGIN TO
EASE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A LAKE BREEZE MOVING INLAND WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE INLAND EXTENT OF THIS LAKE BREEZE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN EASE, BUT THE BEST
TIMEFRAME WILL BE AROUND 1800-1900 CDT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY NIGHT):
CONTINUED WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE RISE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
EQUATE TO AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, AT 10 TO 15 MPH. GIVEN
FUELS ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ONE MORE
DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WITH A COUPLE IMPULSES ALOFT IN THE WEAK FLOW. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
ON THURSDAY, THE CONCERN CHANGES FROM FIRE WEATHER TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. A NEGATIVELY TILED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
AN ARC OF BUOYANCY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000J/KG DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND POTENTIALLY INTO
THE IRON RANGE AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS ARC OF
BUOYANCY WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WITH A COLD FRONT INTERSECTING AN WEST-
EAST WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, AND THEN OCCLUDING INTO THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH
A 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET ABOVE A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET. VEERING WILL BE
MOST SUBSTANTIAL IN THE LOW LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BETWEEN THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS, WITH SHEAR RATHER
UNIDIRECTIONAL ALOFT. GIVEN STRONG FORCING AND THE DEPTH OF THE
NEGATIVELY TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AI
PROBABILITIES ALIGN WITH THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THE SETUP FOR A
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATEST. THE USUAL
UNCERTAINTY SOURCES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SOME CAPPING ARE
SHOWN ON THE SOUNDINGS. THE PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH FAST MOVING LINEAR SEGMENTS, FOLLOWED BY THE
TORNADIC THREAT ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE GREATEST WITH BOTH SUPERCELLULAR AND QLCS TORNADIC THREATS
IN PLAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE DEEP LOW PROPAGATES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THERE IS A NON-
TRIVIAL SPREAD IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE THIS, THE STORY WILL BE RELATIVELY
THE SAME OF DEFORMATION ZONE AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW
MAY MIX IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BORDERLANDS
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.
OVERALL, VERY MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA INTO KOOCHICHING COUNTY WITH STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
BANDED RAINFALL TO START OFF THE EVENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH ARE MOST FAVORED, A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE, FOR THESE
AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE
FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
POCKETS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
PRETTY QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LLWS TO CONTEND WITH IN THE FIRST
6 HOUR PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TERMINALS IN EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AND ACROSS THE INLAND
ARROWHEAD MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE REDUCING
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO LINGER IN
THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
THE NEXT HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WITH
WAVES BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ON
FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FORECAST CURRENT
MAY 13:
KINL: 88 87/1977
MAY 14:
KINL: 87 89/1991
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
MAY 13:
KDLH: 56 54/1991
KINL: 61 55/1987
KHIB: 52 52/1987
KASX: 57 58/1987
MAY 14:
KINL: 61 58/1977
KBRD: 61 62/1998
KHIB: 54 54/1998
MAY 15:
KINL: 59 60/1998
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.
WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ001-002-006>008.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...NLY
CLIMATE...NLY
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