899
FXUS63 KDLH 131130
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL AND NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY
DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING
GUSTY. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
ANOTHER HOT, DRY, AND GUSTY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
TODAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA, EXCEPT THE SHORELINE AREAS OF THE NORTH SHORE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES, EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE-MODIFIED AIR IN PLACE.
A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH
WILL ENCOURAGE THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO DRIFT
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. THE FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
RH VALUES BEING BUOYED BY THE INCREASE IN WATER VAPOR AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL WORK NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
THE GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT AROUND THE BASE
OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE REGION. IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR, THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP 500-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WARM
FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C PER KM ARE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME
WITH 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. STORMS WHICH CAN
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL TO 1.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. MESSY HODOGRAPHS AND
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES IS VERY LOW.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUTOFF LOW AND WILL
LOITER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
MUCH COOLER. THE RISK OF "CONVERSATIONAL" SNOW HAS SHIFTED
LATER IN THE PERIOD, TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
THE AXIS OF THE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT HAS SHIFTED MUCH FARTHER
WEST WITH THE 13.00Z GUIDANCE AND IS NOW FOUND OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY AFFECT
KELO AND KEVM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH. LLWS
RETURNS AT INL TONIGHT. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN NW WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WELL BEYOND THE CURRENT 14.12Z END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND A CHANCE OF STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AND WILL POSE A RISK TO
SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 13: FORECAST:
KINL: 87/1977 87
MAY 14:
KINL: 89/1991 86
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
MAY 13: FORECAST:
KDLH: 54/1991 57
KINL: 55/1987 62
KHIB: 52/1987 56
MAY 14:
KINL: 58/1977 61
KBRD: 62/1998 60
KHIB: 54/1998 56
MAY 15:
KINL: 60/1998 58
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
CLIMATE...HUYCK
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