688  
FXUS63 KDLH 150008  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
708 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING  
 
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST  
MINNESOTA  
 
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY MID-DAY TO SATURDAY MORNING  
 
- COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR  
FREEZING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025  
 
ONGOING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS EVENING BEFORE  
DECREASING IN COVERAGE EARLY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE  
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE DENSE MARINE FOG  
MAY CREATE LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 1 MILE.  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AT THE SURFACE WITH A NEGATIVELY  
TILT TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS  
NORTHWARD TOMORROW, EXPECT THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO  
BE POSSIBLE FIRST IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION IN THE LATER  
MORNING TO MID-DAY HOURS TOMORROW. THIS FIRST ROUND IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND MAINLY LEAD TO CLOUD-TO-GROUND  
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL BE A QUICK WARM  
SECTOR LINGERING OVER THE REGION AS THE MORE EXPECTEDLY POTENT  
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMS FIRST IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THEN  
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME A LINE SEGMENT  
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE  
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT TO BE THE  
PRIMARY HAZARD FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA  
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 2. THE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE  
ENTIRELY RULED OUT THOUGH IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG AND SOUTH  
OF THE IRON RANGE. A FEW TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SEVERE  
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FORECAST  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 INCHES, WITH MORE  
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY REGION.  
 
BEHIND THE LINE SEGMENT THURSDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE A FEW  
HOUR TIME PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM ENTERS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND STALLS OUT. ON THE WRAP-  
AROUND FLOW, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST AGAIN FRIDAY  
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD  
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD (20-30% CHANCE)  
EVEN PRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED  
THOUGH IF THIS COMES TO BE.  
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MEAN  
NORTH AND THEN EASTERLY FLOW. THERE ARE SIGNS OF ANOTHER  
WIDESPREAD RAIN-MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND  
NEXT TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS  
EVENING. THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS  
LOWER THAN NORMAL SINCE THERE ISN'T A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
TRIGGERING THE STORMS. FOR THAT REASON WE OPTED TO KEEP SOME  
PROB30S FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING. TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY. THE FIRST  
WILL ARRIVE IN THE MORNING AND THE SECOND IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
 
 
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025  
 
DENSE MARINE FOG IS ONGOING OVER THE LAKE WITH DENSE MARINE FOG  
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THIS FOG IS LIKELY TO LINGER TONIGHT AND  
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. KEPT THE ENDING TIME OF THE  
ADVISORIES THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING FOR THAT POTENTIAL, BUT  
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS VERY INCONSISTENT ON ENDING AT THAT TIME.  
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY  
MORNING. THERE IS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS BY  
THURSDAY MID MORNING TO EARLY EVENING TOMORROW. SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
NORTH SHORE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO MID-EVENING ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE TO BRING LOCALIZED GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL  
TO THESE WESTERN WATERS. DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MORE RAINFALL CHANCES FRIDAY.  
 
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA  
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>144-150.  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ145-146.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...NLY  
AVIATION...HUYCK  
MARINE...NLY  
 
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