688
FXUS63 KDLH 150008
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
708 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY MID-DAY TO SATURDAY MORNING
- COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
FREEZING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
ONGOING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE EARLY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE DENSE MARINE FOG
MAY CREATE LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 1 MILE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AT THE SURFACE WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILT TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOMORROW, EXPECT THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE POSSIBLE FIRST IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION IN THE LATER
MORNING TO MID-DAY HOURS TOMORROW. THIS FIRST ROUND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND MAINLY LEAD TO CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL BE A QUICK WARM
SECTOR LINGERING OVER THE REGION AS THE MORE EXPECTEDLY POTENT
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMS FIRST IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THEN
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME A LINE SEGMENT
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 2. THE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT THOUGH IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE IRON RANGE. A FEW TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SEVERE
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 INCHES, WITH MORE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY REGION.
BEHIND THE LINE SEGMENT THURSDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE A FEW
HOUR TIME PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENTERS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND STALLS OUT. ON THE WRAP-
AROUND FLOW, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD (20-30% CHANCE)
EVEN PRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED
THOUGH IF THIS COMES TO BE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MEAN
NORTH AND THEN EASTERLY FLOW. THERE ARE SIGNS OF ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN-MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND
NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS
EVENING. THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE LOCATION OF THE STORMS IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL SINCE THERE ISN'T A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRIGGERING THE STORMS. FOR THAT REASON WE OPTED TO KEEP SOME
PROB30S FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY. THE FIRST
WILL ARRIVE IN THE MORNING AND THE SECOND IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
DENSE MARINE FOG IS ONGOING OVER THE LAKE WITH DENSE MARINE FOG
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THIS FOG IS LIKELY TO LINGER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. KEPT THE ENDING TIME OF THE
ADVISORIES THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING FOR THAT POTENTIAL, BUT
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS VERY INCONSISTENT ON ENDING AT THAT TIME.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS BY
THURSDAY MID MORNING TO EARLY EVENING TOMORROW. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
NORTH SHORE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO MID-EVENING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TO BRING LOCALIZED GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
TO THESE WESTERN WATERS. DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MORE RAINFALL CHANCES FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>144-150.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ145-146.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...NLY
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