045
FXUS63 KDLH 152017
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE THREATS.
- RAIN BEGINS TODAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK BEHIND TODAY'S STORMS,
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHTER RAIN RETURNING TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
- COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS LOWS NEAR FREEZING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH
FROST EXPECTED. EVEN A LITTLE SNOW WILL MIX IN FOR THE
ARROWHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
REST OF TODAY - THIS EVENING:
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
LARGELY SPIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
FRONT, A NARROW WARM SECTOR HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DOWN TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA, WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT. THE 18Z MPX
SOUNDING DEPICTS A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-
LEVEL ROTATION, WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 211 M^2/S^2 AND 0-3KM SRH OF
306 M^2/S^2. SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL DISCREET STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL MN WHERE THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL (UP TO 1.5 INCHES), AND A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD, HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
FAVORS STORMS IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA GROWING UPSCALE INTO
A LINE OF STORMS (QLCS) AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND, FIRST IN CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL MN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL MN, NORTHWEST WI, AND
THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THE
MLCAPE SHOULD BUILD TO 1800-2800 J/KG FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO
NORTHWEST WI BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHILE SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG, AS WELL AS 0-1KM AND 0-3KM SRH CONTINUING TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
TORNADOES WITH ANY MESOVORTIES THAT DEVELOP IN THE LINES OF
STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN THIS STRONGLY SHEARED AND BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT, PARTICULARLY IN BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE STORMS.
LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
IN NORTHWEST WI THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BETTER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT DIMINISH. THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN
TEND TO REMAIN AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SO WHILE LARGE HAIL
(QUARTERS) ARE STILL POSSIBLE THERE, THE THREAT IS LESSER THAN
IN NW WI.
BY MID-LATE EVENING, INSTABILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS STORMS
MOVE INTO THE IRON RANGE, NORTHERN MN, AND THE ARROWHEAD, SO THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP OFF TOWARDS THE 8-10PM
TIMEFRAME AS STORMS MOVE INTO THOSE LOCATIONS. THEREFORE, EXPECT
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL TO DROP OFF BY THE TIME STORMS REACH THE
IRON RANGE, WITH THE SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREATS DROPPING OFF
AS STORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
TONIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT:
EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS LATER
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD, LIGHTER
RAINFALL OVERSPREADS THE NORTHLAND AS THE LOW-PRESSURE TREKS
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN CENTRAL MN COULD EVEN BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE RAIN THERE. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM AROUND 0.4" TO AROUND 1.25", WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS (0.75-1.25") EXTENDING FROM ST. CLOUD TO THE
BRAINERD LAKES, INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND PARTS OF THE NORTH
SHORE UP TO SILVER BAY.
THIS WEEKEND - NEXT WEEK:
SPOTTIER LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
POTENTIAL (20-40%) FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN OVER THE ARROWHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN, THOUGH NO SNOW IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S
AND LOWS LARGELY IN THE 30S PERSIST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PERSIST.
THERE ARE FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS, POSSIBLY THE ARROWHEAD TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE
TRACK OF THE LOW COULD TREND JUST SOUTH ENOUGH THAT THE
NORTHLAND COULD MISS OUT ON MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FROM 30-60%, HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND. BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP
AGAIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
DENSE FOG NEAR DLH HAS RETREATED TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS NO
LONGER IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
WILL PUSH A LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS LINE WILL
START OUT NEAR BRD AROUND 20Z AND EXIT AROUND CKC AROUND TO
CROSS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING AROUND 19Z NEAR KBRD
AND EXITING AROUND 03Z NEAR KCKC. STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE
ACROSS NW WI BACK INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE HAIL AND STRONG
TO SEVERE WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ALL STORMS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO
FRIDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ON LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER APOSTLES AND FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES IS FORECAST ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL
LATE EVENING AS WELL BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN ON THE LAKE. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-50 KT AS THE
MAIN THREATS. STORMS EXIT LATER THIS EVENING.
WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
145>148-150.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>146-
150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>144.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
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