837
FXUS63 KDLH 120503
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1203 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE
RAIN COULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE CANADIAN BORDER.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF US-2 IN
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN.
- HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
- THE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THOSE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ALLOWING SMOKE FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH MAY
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CLOUD COVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT
AS THE STORM COMPLEX AND REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS PROPAGATE
EASTWARD.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MOVING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG AND NORTH OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE MIDWEST. A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AT 300 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. A BAND OF 925-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THIS FRONTAL
ZONE AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A
BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE US-2
CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONVEY FAR MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THAN
LIKELY EXISTS. IT SEEMS THE AREA FROM CASS COUNTY EAST AND
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAIN. AREAS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER MAY STAY COMPLETELY DRY.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAISE THE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE COOL LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SHORELINE AREAS OF ST. LOUIS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES THURSDAY, INCLUDING THE DOWNTOWN PORTIONS OF DULUTH AND
SUPERIOR. THE COOLER AIR WILL ROUGHLY FOLLOW THE ST. LOUIS AND
NEMADJI RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S TEMPERATURES MAY STRETCH AS FAR AS WILLOW RIVER, LAWLER,
AND MCGREGOR.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
SOME AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG MAY LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SUNRISE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT INL. THEN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO ARRIVE, SLOWLY WORSENING CONDITIONS TOWARDS
THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARM WILL BE STRONGEST AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALLER
VESSELS AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
STORM OR TWO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...HUYCK
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