836
FXUS63 KDLH 120934
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
434 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH A 5 TO 25% CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
STORMS, ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, SHOWING UP IN A WIND SWITCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A
COMMANDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHRUGS ESE OVER NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO, PLAYING TUG OF WAR WITH A LOW PUSHING UP FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT WILL BE THE DRIVER OF OUR NEXT RAIN
MAKER. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BECOMES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN MN TODAY, EVENTUALLY COLLIDING WITH OR BEING OVERCOME BY AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A MADDOX FRONTAL PATTERN DEVELOPS TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WEAK RIDGING COMES
BACK WHICH SHOULD CUT BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES
INTO NEXT WEEK.
TODAY-FRIDAY RAINMAKER:
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT,
COLLIDING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY. TIMING OF
RAINFALL ARRIVING IN THE CWA HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT, PARTIALLY DUE TO
THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND ANTECEDENT DRY AIR. SHOULD SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PICK UP FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES TO HAYWARD
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS MOISTURE OVERCOMES THAT DRY AIR, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT FIRST, BUT THEN AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND WE'RE ABLE TO
TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE 1.1-1.7" PWATS RAIN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM BRAINERD TO THE TWIN PORTS AND
INTO NW WI. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOST LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THAT THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD COME
WITH WARM CLOUD LAYERS OF 10-12KFT AND FRONT-PARALLEL FLOW ALLOWING
FOR REGENERATING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
DRY AIR TO THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO SHARP CUTOFFS IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. ALONG WITH THE DRY
AIR, SOMETHING THAT COULD LIMIT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS THAT MODEL
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE GENERALLY 15-25 KNOTS (OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINS HAVE GENERALLY HAPPENED IN ENVIRONMENTS WITH 5-10 KNOTS
OR LESS) AND A LACK OF OVERNIGHT INSTABILITY.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WITH 1-3" OF
RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3-4". THANKFULLY, WE
HAVE SEEN THE HUGE VARIABILITY IN PLACEMENT FROM YESTERDAY DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM ONGOING
FROM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, GENERALLY MOST GUIDANCE
PUTS THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS FROM CENTRAL MN TO HWY 53 IN NW WI. THERE
IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT FROM THE FAR
NORTHERN TC METRO SUBURBS TO THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR (VARIATION OF 50-90
MILES INSTEAD OF 200, YAY). THERE IS A 5-25% CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING FOR AREAS FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH AND ACROSS NW WI,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM BRAINERD TO HINCKLEY TO SPOONER. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS INCREASE AND UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT
DECREASE, A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION,
COOLING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
A NORTHEAST WIND OF 25-35MPH SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
40S AND 50S, ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE FOG AS A WARM MOIST AIRMASS
HITS THE BIG LAKE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN POINT BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT.
WEEKEND AND BEYOND:
RIDGING BRINGS A RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE THAT SEVERE WEATHER MAKES
A RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BUT THERE ARE
STILL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND COVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
SOME AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG MAY LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SUNRISE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT INL. THEN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO ARRIVE, SLOWLY WORSENING CONDITIONS TOWARDS
THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY, PICKING UP MOMENTUM THROUGH THE DAY.
THESE NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE TRENDED UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THOSE NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP
UP INTO FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF 20-25+ KNOT GUSTS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD. ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS STAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THAT TIME PERIOD.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ144-145.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
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