617
FXUS63 KDLH 121857 CCA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
157 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ONE
TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES THROUGH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES.
- WARMING UP AND BECOMING MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARDS VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH
RANGE. THE VALUES ARE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHEN COMPARED
TO CLIMATOLOGY AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. TRAINING PRECIPITATION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES THROUGH THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ALOFT TRAINING ALONG THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION ZONE, LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO
THREE INCH RANGE LIKELY BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOW POCKETS OF HIGHER RAINFALL OF
THREE OR FOUR PLUS INCHES IN THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL,
HOWEVER, BOTH PREDICTABILITY AND CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THESE VALUES IS LOW. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE RAINFALL BEING SPREAD OUT OVER A 6 TO 8 PLUS HOUR
WINDOW WITH THE BETTER RATES MORE LIKELY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER BUOYANCY WILL BE IN PLACE.
A SIMILAR OVERALL SETUP CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY, WITH ALBEIT
WEAKER FORCING. SO RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN,
DECREASING IN COVERAGE INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
LOOKING AHEAD, LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BECOMING MORE ZONAL MID WEEK
BEFORE AMPLIFYING AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S
NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS, BUOYANCY WILL BE ON THE
WAY UP TO SUPPORT A DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME, THE STRONGER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY IMPACT
THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
PREDICTABILITY IN THEIR EXACT TIMING IS LOW. AI AND ML
PROBABILISTIC SEVERE GUIDANCE ALL HIGHLIGHT THAT A ROUND OR TWO
OF STORMS NEXT WEEK COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
BUILDING BUOYANCY AND A BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL JET ALONG THE
CREST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER, DETAILS BEYOND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND
MORE SO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KINL AND LOCATIONS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN
FREE FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT
KBRD TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH TO
PORT WING THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS AND WAVES BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET BY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, WAVES
AROUND 4 FEET ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR TACONITE HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS, AND MOST
OF THE SOUTH SHORE AS WAVES BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS. RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WESTER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ142-143-146-148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...PA
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