434
FXUS63 KDLH 131140
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN (POSSIBLY HEAVY LOCALLY) AND SOME THUNDER TODAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF
DULUTH INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES.
- PLENTY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH STORM
CHANCES INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK (SOME COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE).
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE AFFECTED PLACES FROM BRAINERD TO JUST SOUTH
OF DULUTH THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER STORY HAS BEEN WATCHING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AS A STRONG WARM
FRONT WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS SUPPORTED
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. CAMS
HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION WELL THIS MORNING, SO IT'S
KIND OF A WAIT-AND-SEE GAME AT THIS POINT TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL MAKE IT. RIGHT NOW, A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, STRETCHING INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH VERY SLOW
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. THE STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IN PARTICULAR
HAVE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (JUST OVER 10KFT) AND STORM ECHO TOPS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO PASS 20KFT. WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE DOMINATING
WITH THESE, WHICH ISN'T A SURPRISE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ASCENT. THE RISK FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL PRETTY MUCH START IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND
END AROUND MID-TO-LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND TRAIN CAN EASILY BE AROUND 1-3", AND
AMOUNTS UP TO 4-5" CAN'T BE RULED OUT LOCALLY. AT THIS POINT,
THE GREATEST RISK FOR OUR REGION WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM HINCKLEY
OVER INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN (E.G. GRANTSBURG, SPOONER,
WINTER, PHILLIPS). THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF
THERE, BUT THAT'S WHERE THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS IS LOOKING TO SET
UP OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. A SECONDARY RISK WOULD BE UP INTO
THE BRAINERD LAKES, BUT IT'S UNCERTAIN IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. AT THIS POINT, THE FLASH FLOODING RISK
IS LOW, BUT NONZERO (~10%). THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS MAY SEE
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.5-1" PER HOUR LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS
DURATION, WHICH COULD ADD UP TO SOME APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS. WE CAN
ALSO EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL, WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FURTHER NORTH.
THE TIGHT FRONTOGENESIS MAY FIZZLE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
IS GOOD NEWS BECAUSE THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME A BIT
WEAKER AND MORE EVENLY DISPERSED. EXPECT RAIN TO BE SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW (~20%), A
FEW RUMBLES HERE AND THERE ARE POSSIBLE.
WE WILL ESSENTIALLY GET INTO A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
PATTERN ALOFT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONSISTENT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES GOING, PARTICULARLY CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WE MAY GET ANOTHER BURST OF ~0.5-0.75" OF RAIN INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT, AND THEN MAYBE ANOTHER QUARTER INCH
OR SO GOING INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING FROM ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER TO SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY, MAKING THE LAKE BREEZE A BIT WEAKER. 70S TO NEAR 80S FOR
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK FOR MOST PLACES.
WITH THE WARMER AIR, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, TIMING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE CRITICAL, SO NOT A LOT CAN BE SAID WITH
CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW STORMS MAY EVOLVE, BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY
END UP WITH 1,000+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY TO FUEL SOME STORMS.
IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE'LL END UP WITH A PRETTY ZONAL PATTERN WITH
OCCASIONAL RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THUS, WE'LL HAVE PERIODIC RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
WITH MILD SUMMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
RAIN IS AFFECTING BRD/HYR THIS MORNING, AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT A MOSTLY STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RATE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED, AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THE
DAY. AT DLH, SOME RAIN MAY GRAZE THE TERMINAL THROUGH MID-DAY,
BUT VFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. AT HIB/INL, EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT EAST WINDS AT
DLH/HYR/BRD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KNOTS, STRONGEST AT DLH WITH ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. LIGHTER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT HIB/INL.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES
AND INTO THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS. NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE
FOR HAZARDS. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LEADING TO WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, THOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KT. EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
BEYOND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ142-143-
146-148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page