128
FXUS63 KDLH 131823
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
123 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA EAST INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY FOR WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. A DAY OR TWO
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AT SOME POINT
NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL, IT WILL BE A COOL
MID JUNE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN FACT, DOWNWIND AREAS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S, WITH RATHER BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE TWIN PORTS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS FUNNELING TOWARDS THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. STRATUS AND SOME
FOG IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TWIN PORTS ALSO SEEMS LIKELY
FOR THIS SETUP LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, MORE OF A SUMMER TIME PATTERN SETUPS
WITH LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUNDAY, BREAKING DOWN TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROPAGATE INTO THE
CENTRAL US MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A LIKELY BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL JET ALONG THE
CREST OF THE CENTRAL US RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
SOME LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH POINTS TO A POSSIBLE RING OF FIRE
SETUP FOR CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY AND RELATIVELY LOWER CAPPING, WITH BETTER
SHEAR WITH THE MID LEVEL JET. AI AND ML SEVERE PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE ALL SHOW MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA NEXT WEEK WILL BE TIED TO HOW
QUICKLY AND HOW FAR NORTH THE GREATER MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, AND THE TIMING OF LOWER PREDICTABILITY
WAVES AS BACKGROUND FORCING. OVERALL, IT WILL BE WARMER WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT
MATCH EXPECTATIONS FOR MID TO LATE JUNE IN THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
MVFR WITH POCKETS IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE FROM KBRD THROUGH KHYR THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND CONTINUED
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXPECTED.
FOR KDLH, STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
NIGHT AIDED BY EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR, AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MVFR STRATUS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND INTO KHIB LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. KINL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE
18Z TAF PERIOD NORTH OF THE STRATUS, FOG AND PRECIPITATION.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET
WILL CONTINUE FROM TWO HARBORS THROUGH DULUTH AND PORT WING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY FOR WAVES FROM THE
PROLONGED NORTHEAST WIND EVENT. ELSEWHERE, FROM TACONITE HARBOR
TO TWO HARBORS, AND MOST OF THE SOUTH SHORE, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY MORNING FOR WAVES OF 2
TO 4 FEET AND NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25KTS. FOG MAY, A 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE, DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ142-143-
146-148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...PA
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