545
FXUS63 KDLH 141159
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
659 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
- WARMING UP SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARM
SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
WE'RE WAKING UP WITH A MIX OF DIFFERENT CONDITIONS OUT THERE
THIS MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET BRINGING IN
PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WE'LL PROBABLY END UP WITH PLENTY
OF ~0.5-1" TOTALS BY MID-DAY. FURTHER NORTH, WHERE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR, TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
ISOLATED TEMPERATURES BETWEEN ~30-36 DEGREES ARE OCCURRING IN
THE ARROWHEAD, AND A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE FOR
THIS MORNING. WE'LL STILL BE BATTLING ALL THAT DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH, AND AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS BY MID-DAY, WE CAN
EXPECT THE ORGANIZED RAIN IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN, BUT FURTHER NORTH, ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30-40% RANGE
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WE GET SOME MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF
A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT, SO WE MIGHT GET MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. IT'S NOT LOOKING LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC LIFTING TO THE SOUTH MAY RESULT
IN THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY ROB MOST MOISTURE FROM MAKING ITS
WAY NORTH TONIGHT, THUS KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE. WE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THE TREND OF CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS
SOME RAIN IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SOME SUNSHINE ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH THAT DRY EASTERLY FLOW
DOMINATING FOR ONE LAST MORNING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY, WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER ZONAL FLOW MAY DEEPEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE (PWATS ~1.5")
ADVECTION ALONG WITH LOW-END FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT
AND INSTABILITY ON THE LOW END AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD PROMOTE
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN AND AROUND OUR REGION. THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN,
BUT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXTEND. IF THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WE'LL BE
ABLE TO TAP INTO MORE OF THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SPC HAS OUTLINED A MARGINAL RISK (~5% CHANCE) FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE NORTHLAND AND A SLIGHT RISK
(~15% CHANCE) FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. GENERALLY ALL HAZARDS ARE
ON THE TABLE, BUT JUST LOWER PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE FOR
ALL BECAUSE WE'LL BE GENERALLY ON THE NORTHERN END OF FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS. COULD SEE A FEW DISCRETE CELLS THAT MERGE INTO A
LINE IN-TANDEM WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT
THAT'S ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS
TIME, ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE LOW-END OF
SEVERE, WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
WE'LL LOSE BROADER LIFT GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT, WE'LL STILL BE PLENTY WARM, SO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT (40% CHANCE). THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY WARM WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS BRINGING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHLAND.
SOME PLACES MAY SEE SOME RAIN WHILE OTHERS DON'T SEE A WHOLE
LOT. IT'S LOOKING LIKE SOME BROADER RIDGING MAY MOVE IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND, WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES KEEPING ON THE WARM SIDE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
IFR CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO BRD/HYR IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT
HYR AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND FOG BECOMES POSSIBLE.
DENSE FOG ISN'T LIKELY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG COULD CERTAINLY
DEVELOP AND PERSIST TODAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER
TO IFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF TODAY AS WELL AT DLH, AND PERHAPS A
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT HIB. INL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AT HYR, AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, BUT WITH LOW CHANCES, SO I KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
TONIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SORT OF ALL OVER THE PLACE ON FOG
POTENTIAL AT DLH/HYR/BRD. FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP, BUT HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES MAY FALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN. MVFR IS MOST LIKELY
(60% CHANCE).
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SOME BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY,
GENERALLY HOLDING THEIR STRENGTH AROUND THE HEAD OF THE LAKE
AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TOPPING OUT WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE AND WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON AT THE HEAD OF THE
LAKE AS CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
CONSTANT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY, NORTHEAST
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT SOME OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW, BUT NON-ZERO (~10-20%
CHANCE SUNDAY).
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ144-
145.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
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