507
FXUS63 KDLH 160531
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1231 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- AFTER MONDAY, OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME WARM TO
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
MONDAY REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE FORECAST. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK ELEVATED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE
MODELS ARE COALESCING ON A MORE FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES AND CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS. STARTING WITH MONDAY
MORNING, WE SHOULD GET SOME INITIAL SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
ELEVATED STORMS THAT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND BAND OF LIFT THAT PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD DO A GOOD JOB OF KEEPING THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE CAPPED THROUGH THE MORNING IF THIS PLAYS OUT AS IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS (THOUGH IT COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE). BEHIND THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION, A SECTOR OF WARM, MOIST AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH, WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO 7-8
C/KM WILL CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FAVORABLE VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL STORM MODES
POSSIBLE, MORPHING INTO A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT IS MORE FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BUT
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
(INCLUDING THE BRAINERD LAKES TO HINCKLEY TO SPOONER AREAS) WILL
BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. THIS AREA HAS A ~30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL THAT
COULD BE 2"+ IN DIAMETER, A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND A ~5% CHANCE FOR TORNADOES (PER SPC, WITH AN ENHANCED
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS). AS WE LOOK FARTHER NORTH, THE
LAKE BREEZE WILL CUT OFF SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY, AND ALSO THE
LOW PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF THE
DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH ALL THAT SAID, IT'S LOOKING LIKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE RATHER ACTIVE WITH SOME
INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS (HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS)
DEVELOPING, POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE LINEAR INTO THE EVENING
(INCREASING WIND THREAT). STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW AND QUIETER
WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS,
WITH A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BROAD SCALE RIDGING SHOULD BUILD AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, SO
WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS CREEPING INTO
THE 80S FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. WE ARE ALSO CARRYING SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, 30 TO 50 PERCENT AS SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
A MESSY TAF PERIOD WITH IFR SEEPING IN THIS MORNING. ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AFTER ABOUT
09Z. HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING WITH SEVERAL FLAVORS OF SOLUTIONS
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE BEST SURGE IN TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE BETWEEN
19 AND 04Z. LOW STRATUS AND FOG FOLLOWS THE TSRA TONIGHT. WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND SWITCH FROM SOUTH TO MORE WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY VEER EAST ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, REMAINING IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR SPEEDS. WAVES WILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 2
FOOT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY BUMP UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS MONDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...LE
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