929
FXUS63 KDLH 162157
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
457 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND AND
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT IN THE EVENING.
- A FEW DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MID
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- A SURGE OF WARM, HUMID AIR THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND THEN A HOT, STICKY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
SOME CLEARING OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA HAS LEAD TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY TO WHERE IT WAS EXPECTED (UP TO 2000 J/KG) AND WIND
SHEAR 30-40 KTS WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL TURNING HAS INCREASED
THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THAT AREA. PLUS, THE HIGH CAPE AND
LARGE HAIL GROWTH ZONE COULD LEAD TO SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THESE
STORMS AS WELL. LATER ON IN THE EVENING, HOWEVER, WE WILL LOSE
THE IDEAL LOW LEVEL TURNING AND SOME INSTABILITY AS THE STORMS
MOVE EAST. THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2 INCHES) WILL
DIMINISH, AND THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL (UP TO 1.25 INCHES),
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOS CONTINUE.
DUE TO WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION AT THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA, PORTIONS OF THE IRON RANGE
AND THE ARROWHEAD WILL SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. EXACTLY HOW MUCH
WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON THE PATH AND
LONGEVITY OF THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW.
ISOLATED AREAS OVER AN INCH IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH MOST WILL GET A
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A FEW ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION INTO THE MID WEEK. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WON'T BE PARTICULARLY EXCITING, AND COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
TOWARDS CENTRAL MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A
DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL COOL AIR DOWN FROM CANADA TO
INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR IS SHOWN ACROSS GLOBAL MODELS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, COULD LEAD TO
SOME STRONGER STORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. WITH THIS WILL COME ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE FRONT END OF A GOOD LLJ THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL HOT AND
STICKY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABUNDANT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE CURRENT
CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR BRD. MORE STORMS WILL FORM IN THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL IFR
VISIBILITIES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. STORMS NEAR BRD
CURRENTLY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF BEING SEVERE, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES, AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF PASSING STORMS OVER EACH
TERMINAL ARE LAID OUT IN TEMPO GROUPS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG TONIGHT AS WELL AFTER THE STORMS, BUT UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
MARINE WEATHER IS QUIET AFTER TODAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING, WITH THE LARGEST THREATS
BEING STRONG WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
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