867
FXUS63 KDLH 180925
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
425 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXACT TIMING AND THREATS WILL BE REFINED AS
WE MOVE CLOSER TO EACH WAVE OF STORMS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE FIRST IN A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COUPLE STORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST
OF HWY 53 THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WIND SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK,
WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY. OTHER THAN LIGHTNING AND A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHERE IT DOES RAIN, DO NOT EXPECT
IMPACTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY, WIND FIELDS AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE PARAMETER SPACE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FROM
BRAINERD LAKES TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH STRONGER LAPSE RATES
AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, BUT WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A TORNADO GIVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKLY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS.
FRIDAY, THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
FRIDAY EVENING, AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AIR
ALOFT COULD PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES, AND HIGH SHEAR AND CAPE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY, INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE HEAT RISK
OVER THE WEEKEND, AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE PULLS TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHLAND. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA, PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AIRMASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT
CAPPING ALOFT MIGHT LIMIT BOTH COVERAGE AND SEVERITY. MANY
DETAILS TO STILL WORK OUT FOR THIS EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND EXPECT VISIBILITY DROPS,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SAW RAIN TUESDAY EVENING. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE, HAVE INCLUDED FOG AND VIS
DROPPING AS LOW AS LIFR AT BRD, AND AS LOW AS MVFR AT HIB AND
HYR. VIS WILL IMPROVE WITH SUNRISE WED MORNING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM, WITH NORTHWEST BREEZES BELOW 7KTS
WED.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WAVES OF LESS THAN 1 FOOT. ON
THURSDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS, WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
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