206
FXUS63 KDLH 050712
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
212 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40-60KTS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN THREATS.
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEXT WEEK., BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS,
IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST MN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THAT COINCIDED WITH A
DECREASE IN STORM STRENGTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS HIGH INTO THE
NORTHLAND, AND EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD, SLOWLY PUSHING THE BAND OF
RAIN EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES SHIFTING TO OVER NORTHWEST WI. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY, AS FORCING WEAKENS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE EAST. PW VALUES REMAIN QUITE
ELEVATED AT 2.0+ INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SOIL CONDITIONS AND A MORE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE RAINFALL TODAY,
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM GIVEN WIND
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS, BUT LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER WITH MUCH
LOWER CAPE VALUES THAN SEEN ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH DRIER/RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MORE
SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A MORE ZONAL MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONG
SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A LINE OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT, WITH CURRENT
IMPACTS - REDUCTIONS IN VIS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING - FROM
HIB TO BRD. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EASTWARD, EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VIS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. GENERALLY, WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10KTS. HOWEVER,
STRONGER TS, IF THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINAL, COULD PRODUCE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO HYR
SATURDAY MORNING.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, CIGS LOWER EARLY
SATURDAY AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY,
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10KTS AND GUSTS OF 15-20KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FOG. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS RAINFALL BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH WIND GUSTS AT THE HEAD OF THE
LAKE AT 15-20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>037.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
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